Fertiliser Supply Crisis Risk rises as ITC warns shortages could hit global food production, driving inflation and deepening food insecurity
The International Trade Centre has warned that a worsening fertiliser supply crisis risk could significantly undermine global food security, as disruptions in key shipping routes and geopolitical tensions strain agricultural supply chains across developing economies.
The alert comes amid growing concerns that shortages in fertiliser markets may pose a more immediate threat than rising energy costs, with far-reaching consequences for crop production, food prices, and economic stability in import-dependent regions.
ITC Executive Director Pamela Coke-Hamilton said fertiliser remains a critical input for global agriculture, stressing that any prolonged disruption in supply would directly weaken food production systems, particularly in vulnerable economies already exposed to external shocks.
At the centre of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor responsible for transporting around one-third of global urea fertiliser shipments.
Escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the United States have contributed to shipping interruptions, tightening global supply during a crucial agricultural cycle.
The United Nations has confirmed that diplomatic engagements are ongoing to secure safe passage through the waterway, although uncertainty persists over how quickly normal trade flows can be restored.
The Fertiliser Supply Crisis Risk is expected to weigh heavily on import-dependent nations across Africa and Asia, including Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Thailand and Sri Lanka, where agricultural systems rely heavily on timely fertiliser deliveries.
In these regions, analysts warn that delayed or reduced access to fertiliser could result in lower crop yields, particularly as farmers face narrow planting windows and unpredictable rainfall patterns. The impact could extend beyond immediate production losses into longer-term food shortages.
Experts caution that reduced fertiliser application may trigger a chain reaction of declining harvests, rising food inflation and heightened food insecurity, with sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia identified as the most exposed regions.
While some alternative supply routes exist, including potential exports from Egypt and Algeria, the ITC noted that logistical constraints and limited production capacity are likely to delay any meaningful stabilisation of global supply.
The report also acknowledged that some developing economies may see limited short-term benefits from higher energy prices, particularly oil and gas exporters such as Nigeria, Brazil, Angola, Algeria and Malaysia. However, it warned that these gains are unlikely to offset broader structural risks.
Ultimately, the ITC described the situation as a dual economic shock, combining energy market volatility with a more immediate fertiliser supply crisis risk that threatens agricultural output and deepens global vulnerability in the months ahead.
