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Aftermath of Fubara’s declaration: why a guber bid remains unlikely

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An analysis suggests Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s possible 2027 governorship ambition faces political, legal and structural challenges in Rivers State

Kayode Adebiyi 

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The political atmosphere in Rivers State has once again been stirred following the recent press release by Governor Siminalayi Fubara, in which he reportedly clarified that he is not participating in the APC governorship primary ahead of the 2027 election.

Also read: Roy Murray-Bruce Named Chairman of Silverbird Group

Expectedly, the development has triggered a wave of reactions among political observers and supporters. Some, driven more by emotion than political realism, have already begun speculating that Governor Fubara may eventually defect to another political platform, including fringe or emerging parties, to pursue a governorship ambition in 2027.

But such assumptions appear more emotional than strategic.

Anyone who has carefully observed Governor Fubara’s antecedents, disposition, and political conduct would understand why such a move remains highly improbable.

This is not to diminish his intellectual capacity or professional accomplishments. By every indication, Governor Fubara appears to be a brilliant, chartered accountant whose rise through the civil service reflects competence, discipline, and administrative excellence. His educational background and career trajectory speak for themselves.

However, excellence in bureaucracy does not automatically translate into political dexterity.

Fubara’s natural makeup appears more aligned with the world he occupied before politics thrust him into executive leadership: a highly educated, career driven technocrat who rose through an organised bureaucratic structure to become the Rivers State Accountant-General through diligence and competence and would ordinarily retire quietly and honourably after distinguished service.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

But it also says something important about political temperament.

Politics, particularly Rivers politics, is not the civil service. It is not governed merely by procedure, technical expertise, or professional competence.

It is a jungle of competing interests, shifting alliances, betrayals, power calculations, and survival instincts.

It demands tactical patience, emotional restraint, strategic thinking, and, above all, an understanding that power is rarely exercised emotionally.

This is precisely why the suggestion that Governor Fubara would independently leave for another political party and mount a fierce governorship battle in 2027 appears farfetched.

But even beyond questions of political temperament, there is now a significant legal and procedural hurdle: the Electoral Act 2026.

The new electoral framework has substantially narrowed the pathway for opportunistic political defections and last-minute political realignments.

Political parties are now required to submit membership registers to INEC well ahead of their primaries, and only individuals whose names appear in those registers can validly participate as aspirants.

In practical terms, the old political culture where a politician simply loses out in one platform and suddenly migrates to another to secure an election ticket has become considerably more difficult.

This means that even if Governor Fubara were hypothetically inclined to pursue a governorship ambition through another platform, the legal pathway is no longer as flexible as it once was. Timing, party membership, compliance with INEC regulations, and pre-established political structures now matter far more than before.

Yet even this legal reality is only part of the story.

The deeper issue remains political disposition.

The stakes in Rivers politics are extraordinarily high. It is not a terrain for reluctant combatants or political idealists. It rewards organisation, resilience, tactical aggression, and the ability to survive prolonged political warfare.

And if there is one thing recent history has shown, it is that Governor Fubara does not appear naturally wired for that kind of politics.

It is difficult to forget that barely six months into office, he openly found himself in conflict with the very political establishment that produced him, including the Rivers State House of Assembly and the power bloc that facilitated his emergence.

For those who understand the laws of power, this development was always curious.

Political history teaches that a governor handpicked by an entrenched political structure must tread carefully, dine with a long spoon, consolidate quietly, and, most importantly, secure political survival by securing his second term ticket before attempting to assert full independence. Timing, in politics, is often just as important as ambition.

Yet Governor Fubara appeared to move against entrenched interests almost immediately he got into office.

To some, this reflected courage and principle.

To others, it exposed an incomplete understanding of how power is acquired, managed, preserved, and strategically deployed within deeply structured political systems.

That distinction matters.

Because the same political instincts required to survive a confrontation with an established power bloc are the same instincts needed to independently build a political structure strong enough to contest and win a governorship election in Rivers State without the backing of a formidable political machine.

That is no easy task.

Rivers politics is not for the faint hearted. It is not won by sentiment. It is sustained through strategic alliances, political endurance, and calculated patience.

From all indications, Governor Fubara appears more suited to structured governance than the brutal, unpredictable realities of survival politics.

Again, this should not be mistaken for an attack on his intelligence or competence. Not every effective administrator is necessarily built for the rough edges of power politics.

Some people excel within organised institutions. Others thrive in political combat.

They are not always the same thing.

Which is why the idea that Governor Fubara would suddenly emerge as an independent political war general under another smaller platform in 2027 appears, at least for now, highly unlikely.

In Rivers politics, ambition alone is never enough.

Disposition matters. Timing matters. Structure matters.

Also read: Roy Murray-Bruce Named Chairman of Silverbird Group

And above all, political instinct matters.

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Seven prime ministers in a decade: What Nigeria can learn from Britain’s chaos

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By Dr Toju Ogbe,

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The resignation of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, less than two years after leading the Labour Party to  a landslide electoral victory, was dramatic, yet reflected a pattern we have become familiar with in recent British politics.

Also read: Church Leader Who Ushers: Low-Key Lifestyle of A Loud Prophet, Elijah Ayodele

Starmer now joins a procession of fallen prime ministers stretching back to 2016 – from David Cameron to Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak.

None of these prime ministers was ousted through military intervention, popular insurrection, or a court order. Rather, each was ultimately brought down by the same political system that elevated them to electoral glory.

To the casual observer, the rapid turnover of British Prime Ministers in the last decade may appear chaotic, or even a symptom of political instability. Some argue that the British electorate has become ungovernable.

However, beneath the apparent chaos at Westminster lies an uncomfortable truth that African democracies would do well to examine, particularly Nigerians who wonder why our democracy has delivered so little despite almost three decades of uninterrupted civilian rule.

The turbulence of British politics over the last decade, presents an important lesson on democratic accountability beyond successful elections.

Once the prime minister is deemed a liability by their own political party, the mechanics of accountability are activated. The daggers are quietly drawn and the ruthless pressure to resign begins.

Every poll and survey on public opinion is closely monitored, local election results are taken as a referendum on leadership. Cabinet resignations begin to gain momentum and backbenchers get restless.

Once the news media smells an internal uprising, they amplify scrutiny of the prime minister, subjecting every move – speech, public appearance, political misstep etc to relentless examination.

Pressure gradually mounts until the prospect of bitter internal leadership challenge becomes impossible to resist. The Prime Minister falls.

For every British Prime Minister, winning an election is merely the beginning of examination, not the end. Political survival lasts only for as long as the prime minister maintains the confidence of his party and the parliament.

This is the muscle of British democratic accountability; a political culture that prioritises institutional survival over individual ambition. Starmer recognised this reality in his resignation speech:

“The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace.”

That closing sentence alone is a masterclass in British institutional democracy. The party spoke. The leader listened. The correction comes from within.

 

Nigeria presents a strikingly different political logic.

Nigeria on the other hand, presents an interesting contrast with a different political logic and culture.

The notion that a governing party would overtly interrogate the performance of its own leader and engineer a transition to someone better equipped to maintain public confidence, is in most cases politically unthinkable in Nigeria.

Political parties in Nigeria do not coalesce  around ideological principles; rather, they operate more as electoral instruments organised around powerful individuals.

Internal dissent is often dealt with as betrayals rather than as part of healthy democratic engagement. Godfatherism and transactional loyalties shape political succession and leadership retention.

Once elected in Nigeria, there is an inherent assumption that a governor or president has a fixed two-term lease on power.

While 10 Downing Street is preparing to welcome its seventh Prime Minister in a decade, Nigeria, in contrast, has had only two democratically elected presidents during the same period – one of whom is still serving.

Social and economic conditions may deteriorate. Insecurity may worsen. Campaign promises may be ignored.

Public frustrations may become unbearable. Yet, incumbent governors and presidents often remain insulated from meaningful internal scrutiny and are even routinely anointed as ‘consensus’ candidate for second terms provided loyalties to godfathers, rather than the electorates are maintained.

The consequence is that loyalty, instead of performance is often rewarded at the expense of accountability.

This is not an argument for a revolving door at Aso Rock, as frequent leadership changes, by themselves, do not guarantee good governance.

Rather it is a case for making accountability an integral aspect of party politics in Nigeria.

Although the Nigerian presidential system provides for a fixed four-year term regardless of party confidence, political parties should however, be more than instruments for election campaigns, activated to simply retain or take over power every four years.

Electoral victory, should not be the ultimate goal, but the starting point of public service where democratic legitimacy must be continuously earned.

Equally important, political parties must develop the institutional maturity to honestly evaluate their own leaders. They must prioritise public interest and institutional credibility over loyalty to ‘Godfathers’.

The ultimate lesson from Westminster’s revolving door is clear: the true strength of a democratic system, lies not in the ability to produce leaders, but the capacity to effectively replace them, when they no longer command confidence.

Protecting failing leaders from accountability weakens democracy and political parties must ensure that no leader is more powerful than the institution.

Also read: Zamfara Governor, Dauda Lawal Shakes Up Cabinet, Moves Budget Commissioner to Education

As political parties gear up for the 2027 general elections, the political class must decide what matters more: we can continue to reward blind loyalty and endure predictable decline, or discover the courage to demand accountability from those who seek to lead us.

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Chief Obafemi Awolowo and the fabric of Nigeria’s history and society

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By Sabella Ogbobode Abidde,

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As a scholar, I have always wanted to edit or co-edit a book on the Big Ten of Nigerian nationalists, focusing on their lives, times, and generational impact from the nineteenth to the twenty-first century.

Also read: Abolish state of origin: A prerequisite for true national integration

An august list would include greats such as Aminu Kano, Herbert Macaulay, Nnamdi Azikiwe, Alvan Ikoku, Anthony Enahoro, Ahmadu Bello, Egbert Udo Udoma, Tafawa Balewa, Obafemi Awolowo, Eyo Ita, and Nnamdi Azikiwe. Two or more scholarly volumes would be ready before I bid farewell to my academic career.

But for now, this column briefly sheds light on a philosopher and mystic, who was also a political and economic giant: Chief Obafemi Awolowo.

His impact is multigenerational and wondrously woven into the fabric of Nigeria’s history, culture, and society.

Publicly available records indicate that the Nigerian nationalist movement began in the 1920s (Awolowo was born in 1909), so he had forebearers in the movement.

He later became one of the movement’s central figures, and by independence in October 1960, he had perhaps become the dominant personality shaping Nigeria’s political development and economic growth.

Awolowo was also a federalist. The first Premier of the Western region of Nigeria. The founder of the Yoruba nationalist group Egbe Omo Oduduwa.

He was the leader of the Action Group (AG), a political party and an opposition leader in the federal parliament, from 1959 to 1963.

A noted lawyer, author, journalist, and the founder and publisher of the Nigerian Tribune newspaper.

And in later years, under the first military regime, he served as the federal commissioner for finance and as vice chairman of the Federal Executive Council during the Nigerian-Biafran Civil War, 1967-1970.

Much later, Awolowo founded the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) and became the party’s presidential candidate in 1979 and 1983.

The consensus was that, on both occasions – especially in 1979 – the electoral body, acting at the behest of the then military regime, put its foot and thumb on the ballot-counting machines to the detriment of Awolowo.

In other words, those who voted didn’t count; the military counted and secured the votes for their preferred candidate.

Those officially sanctioned electoral irregularities, many Nigerians have asserted, partially account for why Nigeria has remained politically and economically miserable and socially chaotic in the years since.

And in the years since his passing, many of the so-called Awoists — men and women who claimed to be adherents and practitioners of his precepts — have fallen by the wayside.

They failed! By 1997, one rarely finds a school of politicians parading themselves as students of or members of the Awolowo Cathedral.

In the second decade of the twenty-first century, many politicians lack the impudence to call themselves Awoists.

The irony is that in the northern part of Nigeria, one can rarely find a pool of politicians who, today, adhere to the teachings and practices of Mallam Aminu Kano. And in the east, there are no more followers of Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe.

Many politicians, from the east to the west, from the north to the south, and from the middle belt to the south-south, have done away with ethics, morality, ideology, or remaining faithful to their political parties.

Most no longer care about party manifestos or going to the State House, National Assembly, or the Presidency with the people’s burden on their hearts or shoulders.

In public or in private, participants in the Nigerian political and economic space think nothing about integrity, posterity, nation-building, or national interest. It is mostly about self-interest now.

That is what Nigeria has become! Many of the good, effective, efficient, visionary, and purposeful Nigerians are in hiding, while the audaciously corrupt are masters of the game, leaders at various levels of governance.

And we expect to change for the better? Heck no! It is a painful three-ring circus at all three levels.

I do not for once contend that the Federal Republic of Nigeria is a lost cause, a lost experiment, a lost entity, or a forsaken project. No! It can be saved; it can be brought back from the edge of the cliff.

And I also do not for once think that Nigeria should be partitioned into three or four separate countries.

Oh, no! I believe that sustained, first-rate, courageous, and visionary leadership can turn the Nigerian ship around. It is doable. This is not a hopeless country. It is not!

Many of the institutions Awolowo built are still going strong. Many of his policies have been proven right and correct. Many of his teachings have been found to be the appropriate panaceas for Nigeria.

And many of the physical infrastructure projects he built lasted for more than four decades.

And so, imagine where Nigeria would be today on the development scale – on the same level as Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, China, and Australia? Or the oil-rich Middle East countries.

Not having Chief Obafemi Awolowo as the president of this federation set her back three to four decades.

Examined dispassionately, his economic and political achievements have yet to be rivaled for several decades after his premiership of the western region, and neither has his commissionership (now minister) of the finance portfolio.

He was good, he was great, and he was miles above his contemporaries in the development of their various regions and in their generational legacies.

Without Awolowo’s policies, much of southern Nigeria – especially the western region — would perhaps be one of the least developed in today’s Nigeria.

Directly and indirectly, Awolowo was the man who made it possible for millions of Nigerians and their offspring to dream of and have a better life.

He promised, he delivered; he built and encouraged others, such as Michael Adekunle Ajasin (Ondo State), Lateef Kayode Jakande (Lagos State), Bola Ige (Oyo State), and Olabisi Onabanjo (Ogun State), to be builders.

If General Yakubu Dan-Yumma Gowon was the most consequential military leader Nigeria has ever had, Chief Obafemi Jeremiah Oyeniyi Awolowo, was the single most consequential leader and public figure beginning with his premiership in 1954.

Above all else, he was a family man, a good man, a good Nigerian, and a Pan-Africanist. He was better than most and far better than we thought. That’s Awo for you, a man who’s woven into our consciousness.

Also read: Abolish state of origin: A prerequisite for true national integration

Chief Obafemi Awolowo would have been 117 this year, but he died at 78 in 1987 at his home in Ikenne, Ogun State. Chief Hannah Idowu Dideolu Awolowo, affectionally called HID, was Awolowo’s “jewel of inestimable value.” He had said of her: “I do not hesitate to confess that I owe my success in life to three factors: the Grace of God, a Spartan self-discipline, and a good wife. Our home is to all of us, a true haven; a place of happiness, and of imperturbable seclusion from the buffetings of life.” HID was born in Ikenne, in1915 and passed in 2015 in the same locality. She was 99. It was a union and a marriage that lasted for five glorious decades.

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Church Leader Who Ushers: Low-Key Lifestyle of A Loud Prophet, Elijah Ayodele

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-by Folorunsho Hamsat

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In today’s clout-chasing world, everyone wants to flaunt their connections, and demonstrate influence. But one famous spiritual leader is completely changing the game on what fame should look like. Meet the leader of INRI Evangelical Spiritual Church, Primate Elijah Ayodele, the Lagos based mega prophet who chooses to blend into the crowd.

Primate Ayodele is completely redefining spiritual leadership. While his prophetic voice thunders with undeniable authority on the global stage, his personal life is defined by deep, quiet humility. Those in his inner caucus say he does not chase trends or clout. He simply serves.

In a world where spiritual leaders are often expected to be showmen, Primate Ayodele presents a fascinating study in contrast. He is a man who is inherently reserved, yet his ministry commands global attention. He is a naturally quiet personality, but the sheer weight and precision of his prophecies make him appear like a remarkably loud person to the public.

Primate Ayodele’s prophetic ministry has expanded far beyond local borders, capturing the attention of nations across the globe. Renowned for his remarkably accurate insights into international politics, broad economic changes, and governance, Ayodele has quietly become a trusted confidant and friend to numerous men and women of timber and caliber.

Remarkably, Ayodele has direct access to top African presidents and world decision makers. The magic wand? His breathtaking accurate prophecies on global politics and economies that continue to win him honours across Africa, and beyond. However, he is hardly seen or heard bragging about it or dropping names to show off. He doesn’t chase clout, he delivers results, his people affirm. True power doesn’t need to make noise to be felt, Ayodele himself would say.

Church insiders squealed that if you walk into the Oke-Afa, Isolo headquarters of his ministry (where you almost always can find him) on a Sunday, good luck to you spotting him. This clearly shows how super shy and reserved Primate Ayodele really is. However, his voice only thunders when he stands on the altar to preach or drop his trademark prophetic warnings.

The true mark of Ayodele’s unique personality is, he can act as a president’s adviser on a Saturday, and happily serves as an ordinary usher in his own church on a Sunday!

Insiders confirm that once he steps off the altar, Primate Ayodele completely withdraws from the public eye. First-time visitors are said to be stunned because the world famous prophet blends right into the crowd. Within and outside his church, no massive security squad, no fancy exclusive prestige, and no ego.

During church services, we learned, Ayodele would roll up his sleeves and acts as a regular church usher. Sometimes, insiders revealed, he even stands right at the church’s entrance, mounting guard at the door to welcome guests and church members. Talk about ultimate servant leadership.

For Primate Ayodele, indeed, true spiritual power is beyond making a loud noise, but rather about making the biggest impact.

-Folorunsho Hamsat is a Lagos based journalist

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