Business
Nigeria to Become Africa’s Third-Largest Economy in 2026
Nigeria Africa third-largest economy in 2026, IMF predicts growth from $285bn to $334bn amid reforms and rising oil production
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Nigeria will overtake Algeria to become Africa’s third-largest economy in 2026, driven by rising oil production, improved access to foreign exchange, and ongoing economic reforms.
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According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook released in October 2025, Nigeria’s gross domestic product grew to $285 billion in 2025, placing it fourth in Africa behind South Africa ($426 billion), Egypt ($349 billion), and Algeria ($288 billion).
The fund now anticipates Nigeria’s GDP will reach $334 billion in 2026, while Algeria’s is expected to fall to $284 billion.
IMF officials attribute the growth outlook to policy measures including the removal of petrol subsidies, reforms to the exchange rate system, and adjustments to government finances.
While inflation remains a challenge in the short term, the IMF expects these measures to sustain medium-term growth.
In January 2026, the IMF revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast to 4.4 percent, up from an earlier estimate of 4.2 percent.
The World Bank has similarly increased its 2026 forecast to 4.4 percent, compared with 3.7 percent projected in June 2025.
Nigeria’s economic ranking has fluctuated in recent years due to currency devaluation, economic rebasing, and other continental challenges.
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Analysts say the projected rise reinforces the country’s status as a leading African economy and underscores the impact of structural reforms.
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Dangote Petroleum Refinery has set its initial public offering price at ₦525 per share, with the company seeking to raise about ₦2.15 trillion as it prepares to enter Nigeria’s public equities market.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the offer for 4.1 billion ordinary shares at ₦525 each. If fully subscribed, the offer would generate approximately ₦2.15 trillion, equivalent to about $1.6 billion at current exchange rates.
The offering is expected to open on 14 September 2026, according to Aliko Dangote, the president of Dangote Industries. The planned sale is positioned to become one of the largest equity offerings in Africa.
The IPO marks a significant step in Dangote Group’s plans to broaden ownership of the refinery and raise additional capital for expansion.
The refinery currently has a stated processing capacity of 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Dangote has said the company plans to increase that capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day as part of its longer-term expansion strategy.
The planned share sale follows a $1 billion underwriting programme completed in August, providing additional financial backing ahead of the public offering.
The refinery, located in the Lekki area of Lagos State, is one of Africa’s largest industrial projects and has become an increasingly important player in Nigeria’s fuel supply market since beginning operations.
The public offering will give Nigerian investors an opportunity to acquire shares in the refinery directly, while providing Dangote Petroleum Refinery with fresh capital to support its next phase of growth.
The company has also indicated ambitions to expand beyond its current Nigerian operations, with Dangote recently announcing plans for another refinery project in Kenya.
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