Nigeria crude oil exports decline by N3.18tn in H1 2025 despite 12.7% production rise, signalling challenges in export earnings and market dynamics

Nigeria crude oil exports decline by N3.18 trillion in the first half of 2025, despite a notable 12.7 per cent rise in production volumes, according to the latest foreign trade statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

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While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported increased crude output, export earnings from crude oil fell sharply, down 11.3 per cent year-on-year — from N28.10tn in H1 2024 to N24.92tn in the same period of 2025.

This paradox highlights underlying challenges in translating rising production into higher export revenues.

Further breakdown reveals a steep 16.3 per cent fall in crude exports during Q1 2025, dropping from N15.49tn to N12.96tn. The decline slowed in Q2, with exports reducing by 5.1 per cent year-on-year.

Notably, crude oil’s share of total exports weakened significantly, tumbling from 80.8 per cent in Q1 2024 to 62.9 per cent in Q1 2025, and further slipping to 52.6 per cent in Q2 2025.

By contrast, non-crude exports surged impressively, more than doubling to N18.43tn in H1 2025 from N8.79tn the previous year.

This surge helped total exports rise by 17.5 per cent, reaching N43.35tn, while imports grew modestly by 6.9 per cent.

The growing contribution of non-oil sectors signals a shifting export profile for Nigeria, though the declining crude export earnings raise questions about global oil prices, domestic crude consumption, and export volumes.

Experts point to several factors behind this trend, including the supply of crude to local refineries like the Dangote Petroleum Refinery under a naira-for-crude arrangement, which diverts volumes from international markets. Additionally, weaker global prices have put pressure on export revenues.

Production figures tell a different story: Nigeria pumped 266.9 million barrels of crude oil in H1 2025 — a 12.7 per cent increase over the 236.7 million barrels recorded in H1 2024.

Each month from January to June 2025 saw year-on-year production gains, with June output rising by 7.1 million barrels compared to 2024.

Crucially, losses from crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism have dropped significantly, with NUPRC reporting a 50.2 per cent reduction in oil losses between January and July 2025 compared to the previous year.

At 2.04 million barrels lost, this is the lowest level since 2009, reflecting improved security and regulatory measures.

Despite these positive signs, the dip in global oil prices remains a concern. Energy experts warn that while lower crude prices may ease fuel costs domestically, they pose a threat to government revenue and budget implementation, especially if daily production targets are not met.

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The paradox of rising crude oil production yet declining export earnings encapsulates the complex dynamics facing Nigeria’s oil sector — balancing domestic refining ambitions, security improvements, and volatile global markets.