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Naira Shows Resilience Amid Middle East Tensions and Rising Oil Prices

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Nigeria’s naira shows resilience despite Middle East tensions, supported by CBN interventions, rising oil production, and growing foreign reserves

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Nigeria’s naira is exhibiting renewed resilience, even as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to place pressure on the currency.

Also read: Naira Declines Amid USD Pressure on February 19, 2026

Analysts suggest this stability signals a “new normal,” contrasting with the extreme volatility seen in previous years.

Experts predict the naira will trade within a range of N1,350 to N1,400 per US dollar by the end of the week.

However, any escalation of conflict in the Middle East could push parallel market rates closer to N1,450, as investors seek safe-haven assets.

Conversely, the naira could strengthen toward N1,300 if Nigeria surpasses oil production of 1.6 million barrels per day and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intervenes strategically.

Periods of global uncertainty often trigger capital outflows from Nigeria and other frontier markets, with investors shifting funds into safer instruments such as the US dollar, Treasury bonds, and gold.

This pattern underscores the naira’s sensitivity to both domestic economic policy and international developments.

The CBN has played a key role in stabilising the naira.

Foreign exchange reserves surged to $50.45 billion in February 2026 a 13-year high giving the central bank substantial “firepower” to meet dollar demand.

With roughly ten months of import cover, Nigeria is better positioned than ever to protect its currency.

Reflecting growing confidence in economic stability, the CBN cut the Minimum Policy Rate (MPR) to 26.5% from 27% in February 2026, the first rate reduction amid a tightening cycle in several years.

This strategic pivot aims to support broader economic growth, projected at 4.3% to 4.7% in 2026.

Nigeria’s dependence on oil, which accounts for roughly 85% of foreign exchange earnings, means crude production and global prices heavily influence the naira.

The upcoming Dangote Refinery, with a capacity of up to 1.4 million barrels per day, is expected to reduce petrol imports, easing pressure on reserves.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has introduced new crude grades Utapate, Obodo, and Cawthorne boosting daily inflows of hard currency and helping Nigeria approach its OPEC quota of 10.5 million barrels per day.

Geopolitical tensions, however, have a dual effect. Rising crude prices, around $75 per barrel after recent attacks, increase foreign reserves, but heightened uncertainty can raise import costs and trigger capital flight, challenging currency stability.

Nigeria’s 2026 budget is based on a benchmark crude price of $64.85 per barrel, meaning sustained higher prices could significantly strengthen reserves, projected between $45 billion and $51 billion.

Domestic challenges, including oil theft and aging infrastructure, continue to limit consistent daily production, preventing Nigeria from fully capitalising on potential gains.

Global currency trends also affect the naira.

The US dollar index (DXY) recently retreated from five-week highs to 97.90 during Monday’s Asian trading hours.

Also read: Dangote Predicts Naira Could Strengthen to N1,100

Nevertheless, military escalations in the Middle East, including US and Israeli strikes in Iran and subsequent retaliations, are expected to maintain demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency, indirectly influencing Nigeria’s currency and foreign reserves.

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Shoreline Group secures US$200 million Afreximbank Facility

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Shoreline Group today announced that African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has approved a US$200 million facility in favour of Shoreline Power Company Limited and co-borrowers including Arkad S.p.A., Shoreline’s majority-owned engineering and construction platform.
Approved in June 2026, the facility was arranged and provided by Afreximbank as sole mandated lead arranger and lender. It provides bonding and working-capital capacity for Arkad’s delivery of the Hassi Bir Rekaiz project and supports Shoreline and its affiliates in developing further pipeline and infrastructure
projects in Nigeria and other permitted jurisdictions.
“This is a defining transaction for Shoreline and Arkad. We built Arkad as an African- sponsored engineering platform capable of competing at the highest level, and it is now delivering against a billion-dollar energy contract. Afreximbank’s US$200 million commitment gives the platform the financial strength to match its engineering capability and pursue further major infrastructure mandates. It demonstrates that African enterprises can assemble the capital, capability and partnerships required to compete for infrastructure at international scale.”
Hassi Bir Rekaiz Phase 2a Arkad holds 44 per cent of the approximately US$1 billion EPCCS-1 contract awarded by Groupement
Hassi Bir Rekaiz (GHBR) to an unincorporated consortium led by Egypt’s Petrojet, which holds 56 percent. EPCCS-1 covers engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning and start-up for the Phase 2a central processing facility and related infrastructure at the Hassi Bir Rekaiz field in Algeria’s Berkine
Basin.
GHBR is the joint operating entity for the licence, held by Sonatrach with 51 per cent and Thailand’s PTTEP with 49 per cent. The project includes a new crude oil processing facility with capacity of 31,500 barrels per day, facilities for associated gas and produced-water treatment, approximately 217 kilometres
of pipelines and the brownfield modifications required to integrate existing Phase 1 infrastructure.
The facilities are designed to support later expansion to 63,000 barrels per day under Phase 2b.
“This financing addresses the instruments that determine whether an EPC contractor can execute at scale: performance guarantees, advance payment guarantees and working capital through the project cycle. Hassi Bir Rekaiz is a demanding scope, combining a new central processing facility, associated treatment systems, pipelines and brownfield integration. With Petrojet, and with the support of Shoreline and Afreximbank, Arkad is focused on disciplined delivery against the project’s safety, quality and schedule requirements.”
The transaction was structured under Afreximbank’s Engineering, Procurement and Construction Initiative, which supports African engineering and construction firms with the financial instruments required to compete for and execute large infrastructure contracts. Afreximbank also supported the Arkad-Petrojet partnership through its EPC twinning work at the Intra-African Trade Fair held in Algiers
in 2025.
According to Afreximbank, the transaction is its first support for a Sub-Saharan African contractor undertaking a major infrastructure project in North Africa. For Shoreline, it demonstrates a practical model for combining African ownership and capital with established international engineering andindustrial capability.

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BUSINESSWOMAN AISHA ACHIMUGU SPEAKS OUT, CALLS FOR PROTECTION OF LIFE AND RESPECT FOR RULE OF LAW

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Nigerian businesswoman and investor Aisha Achimugu has made a public appeal for the protection of her life, her family, and her business interests while alleging a sustained campaign of intimidation, media trial, and asset seizures.

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Achimugu, in a statement Tuesday, said she is facing actions that she described as an affront to the rule of law and natural justice.
She then called for the respect for court orders and for an end to what she termed misleading media coverage about her person and companies.
According to Achimugu, the widow of the late Engr. Sulaiman Achimugu, former Managing Director of the Pipelines and Product Marketing Company, PPMC, she has over the last three decades built businesses in the oil and gas and other sectors, and runs the SAM Empowerment Foundation, SEF, which she said has implemented health, education, and community projects across Nigeria.
The businesswoman, however, alleged that since 2023 she has been the subject of investigations and actions by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC.
Narrating her ordeals, Achimugu noted that in 2023, the EFCC’s Port Harcourt zonal office froze her personal accounts, her children’s accounts, and company accounts linked to the Felak Group, based on an interim forfeiture order.
She said this was connected to a mistaken association with MBA Forex and Capital Investment.
Achimugu stated that in January 2024 she honoured an EFCC invitation with her counsel, clarified her company’s single transaction with MBA Forex, and refunded N58 million by bank draft to the EFCC recovery account.
In March 2025, the businesswoman said she received WhatsApp messages inviting her to the EFCC Port Harcourt office. Her lawyer responded in writing, proposing dates in April 2025. Despite this, she alleged a media campaign began on March 10, 2025 linking her to wrongdoing.
On March 28, 2025, the same day her company, Oceangate Oil & Gas Limited, submitted proof of $20 million payment to NUPRC for oil blocks PPL 302-DO and PPL 3007, subsequently, she claimed the EFCC declared her a “Wanted Person” for “conspiracy and money laundering.” She also alleged that EFCC operatives searched her home that day.
In April 2025, Achimugu said she filed a fundamental rights suit at the Federal High Court, Abuja. But upon returning to Nigeria on April 28, 2025 from a foreign trip, she alleged she was taken into EFCC custody, granted bail by a judge, but released five days later. She also said her international passport was collected.
She alleged further asset actions, including freezing of bank accounts, and the seizure of vehicles from her home in January 2026. She said matters relating to these actions are the subject of ongoing litigation and appeals.
Achimugu also alleged that her United States visa was revoked in April 2025, and that she encountered issues with visa processing related to her Grenadian citizenship, which she linked to media reports citing the EFCC’s declaration.
Achimugu stated that she has invested nearly $90 million in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector in the last five years and has attracted over $100 million in investments into the economy while directly employs close to 200 Nigerians.
However, she said the actions of the anti-graft agency have affected her business operations, international partnerships, and family, including her elderly parents and young children.
Achimugu then called on the National Assembly, the Judiciary, security services, and local and international human rights organizations to examine her case.
She also asked for the protection of her life and properties, respect for court orders, and an end to what she described as a “media trial”.
“I believe that justice delayed is justice denied, and I am not afraid to face the law provided due process is followed. My lawyers are pursuing all legal remedies locally and internationally,” she said.
Achimugu added that she remains committed to Nigeria and to supporting private sector growth.

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Nigeria’s Credit Crisis: Why Firms Still Struggle for Loans

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Nigeria’s Credit Crisis deepens as businesses struggle with high lending rates, weak bank credit access and government borrowing despite falling inflation (more…)

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