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NBS to Normalise December 2025 Inflation Data

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The NBS will normalise December 2025 inflation data, correcting base effects from CPI rebasing for accurate economic reporting

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced plans to normalise Nigeria’s inflation data for December 2025 following a projected spike in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which the Bureau attributed to statistical base effects rather than underlying economic conditions.

Also read: Headline Inflation Reduces To 15.99% In October — NBS

The clarification came during a virtual engagement on Monday convened by the NBS and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).

Statistician General of the Federation and NBS CEO, Adeyemi Adeniran, explained that the spike stems from the rebasing of the CPI to 2024 as the new base year, marking the first rebasing since 2009.

“Base effects are common in statistical practice, particularly when comparing data across periods with unusually high or low prices. The expected spike in December 2025 arises from this arithmetic effect and is not reflective of structural economic changes,” Adeniran said.

The NBS will apply a normalisation process, using the average CPI from January to December 2024 as the reference period, instead of equating December 2024 to 100.

This adjustment, in line with the CPI Manual 2020, aims to remove artificial distortions and provide a clearer picture of inflation trends.

Dr Ayo Anthony, Director of Price Statistics at NBS, outlined methodological changes resulting from the rebasing, which introduced over 400 new products into the CPI basket and removed more than 200 items, reflecting evolving consumption patterns.

Anthony noted that without adjustment, December 2025 inflation could appear artificially high.

NESG CEO Dr Tayo Aduloju emphasised the importance of credible CPI data for policy formulation, stating that misleading inflation signals could undermine macroeconomic stability as Nigeria transitions from stabilisation to consolidation reforms.

While the normalisation affects published figures from January to December 2025, the NBS assured stakeholders that the impact is minor and will be clearly communicated.

From January 2026 onwards, the base effect will no longer influence CPI calculations, as comparisons will rely solely on actual rebased index values.

However, some economists expressed concerns over credibility.

Former Zenith Bank chief economist Marcel Okeke warned that adjusting figures could undermine confidence and comparability with other economies.

Investment banker Adetilewa Adebajo

echoed these concerns, questioning how inflation could appear to double from November to December without reflecting real price changes.

The NBS affirmed that the normalisation follows global best practices, with consultations from the IMF, World Bank, and Central Bank of Nigeria.

Also read: Access Bank and the Rebirth of the National Theatre: Revitalising Nigeria’s Cultural Future

Adeniran stressed the importance of regular rebasing to avoid distortions and improve the accuracy of economic indicators.

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Cement costs more in Nigeria than Kenya, Togo, FCCPC finds

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Cement price manipulation is under investigation by the FCCPC after a three-month study found Nigerian prices were high despite surplus capacity

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Heirs Life Names Pastor Jerry Eze Independent Non-Executive Director

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Heirs Life appoints Jerry Eze as an Independent Non-Executive Director to strengthen financial inclusion, consumer trust and insurance adoption (more…)

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Shoreline Group secures US$200 million Afreximbank Facility

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Shoreline Group today announced that African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has approved a US$200 million facility in favour of Shoreline Power Company Limited and co-borrowers including Arkad S.p.A., Shoreline’s majority-owned engineering and construction platform.
Approved in June 2026, the facility was arranged and provided by Afreximbank as sole mandated lead arranger and lender. It provides bonding and working-capital capacity for Arkad’s delivery of the Hassi Bir Rekaiz project and supports Shoreline and its affiliates in developing further pipeline and infrastructure
projects in Nigeria and other permitted jurisdictions.
“This is a defining transaction for Shoreline and Arkad. We built Arkad as an African- sponsored engineering platform capable of competing at the highest level, and it is now delivering against a billion-dollar energy contract. Afreximbank’s US$200 million commitment gives the platform the financial strength to match its engineering capability and pursue further major infrastructure mandates. It demonstrates that African enterprises can assemble the capital, capability and partnerships required to compete for infrastructure at international scale.”
Hassi Bir Rekaiz Phase 2a Arkad holds 44 per cent of the approximately US$1 billion EPCCS-1 contract awarded by Groupement
Hassi Bir Rekaiz (GHBR) to an unincorporated consortium led by Egypt’s Petrojet, which holds 56 percent. EPCCS-1 covers engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning and start-up for the Phase 2a central processing facility and related infrastructure at the Hassi Bir Rekaiz field in Algeria’s Berkine
Basin.
GHBR is the joint operating entity for the licence, held by Sonatrach with 51 per cent and Thailand’s PTTEP with 49 per cent. The project includes a new crude oil processing facility with capacity of 31,500 barrels per day, facilities for associated gas and produced-water treatment, approximately 217 kilometres
of pipelines and the brownfield modifications required to integrate existing Phase 1 infrastructure.
The facilities are designed to support later expansion to 63,000 barrels per day under Phase 2b.
“This financing addresses the instruments that determine whether an EPC contractor can execute at scale: performance guarantees, advance payment guarantees and working capital through the project cycle. Hassi Bir Rekaiz is a demanding scope, combining a new central processing facility, associated treatment systems, pipelines and brownfield integration. With Petrojet, and with the support of Shoreline and Afreximbank, Arkad is focused on disciplined delivery against the project’s safety, quality and schedule requirements.”
The transaction was structured under Afreximbank’s Engineering, Procurement and Construction Initiative, which supports African engineering and construction firms with the financial instruments required to compete for and execute large infrastructure contracts. Afreximbank also supported the Arkad-Petrojet partnership through its EPC twinning work at the Intra-African Trade Fair held in Algiers
in 2025.
According to Afreximbank, the transaction is its first support for a Sub-Saharan African contractor undertaking a major infrastructure project in North Africa. For Shoreline, it demonstrates a practical model for combining African ownership and capital with established international engineering andindustrial capability.

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