Nigeria’s non-oil exports hit N3.17tn in Q1 2025, but stakeholders warn that data gaps and informal trade continue to undermine accurate reporting

Nigeria’s non-oil export data rose sharply to N3.17 trillion in Q1 2025, marking a 78.07% year-on-year increase, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Also read: Oil crash hits Nigeria’s budget

However, stakeholders warn that the reported growth may underrepresent the true scale of the country’s non-oil trade due to widespread informal cross-border transactions that remain undocumented.

The value of non-oil exports surged from N1.78 trillion in Q1 2024 to N3.17 trillion in Q1 2025, contributing 15.38% to total exports—up from 9.28% the previous year.

The data also showed continued upward momentum since Q4 2023, driven largely by agricultural goods, which led the sector with N1.7 trillion, followed by manufacturing exports at N294.43 billion.

While the oil sector faces persistent volatility, non-oil trade has expanded nearly eight times faster. However, concerns are growing that Nigeria’s trade statistics do not reflect the full picture, especially with the informal sector playing a dominant role.

“More than 50% of our non-oil exports are informal and go unrecorded,” said Dr Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE).

A notable concern is Nigeria’s exports to African countries, which declined by 9.19% to N1.85 trillion in Q1 2025. Analysts argue this drop is misleading due to the informal nature of intra-African trade, where goods often cross borders without documentation.

The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) estimates at least \$31.8 million in unrecorded informal exports occurred monthly across states such as Kano, Jigawa, Sokoto, and Lagos in 2024.

NEPC Executive Director, Nonye Ayeni, explained that these undocumented transactions represent a vital part of the economy that supports livelihoods and regional trade.

> “We’re working to mainstream informal trade so that these activities are officially recognised and captured,” Ayeni said.

A 2022 report by Free Trade Nigeria noted that informal trade accounts for 30–40% of total intra-African trade, often involving semi-processed goods and agricultural commodities.

In West Africa alone, informal trade comprises up to 90% of employment and 50% of GDP in some countries.

Stakeholders like Yusuf argue that red tape and inaccessible documentation procedures drive many small-scale exporters away from formal channels. Exporters from rural areas, such as Saki in Oyo State, often face impractical logistics, with documentation centers located far from the production zones.

“Unless we simplify export procedures at the borders, informal trade will continue to dominate,” Yusuf noted.

Many of Nigeria’s borders remain closed or poorly managed, with only a few operational such as Seme in the southwest and Maradi in the north. This leaves traders with few options other than informal crossings.

Smuggling, particularly of petroleum products, is also muddying the export data landscape. “PMS sells at around N1,500 per litre in Benin Republic compared to N900–N1,000 in Nigeria, increasing smuggling incentives,” Yusuf warned.

President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Gabriel Idahosa, echoed Yusuf’s concerns. He explained that only large firms and bank-financed exporters are captured in the data, while daily informal exports across land and sea remain invisible.

“There’s not much the government can do short-term. Informal trade is part of everyday life in developing economies,” Idahosa said.

Still, he acknowledged the need for customs modernisation and digital tracking systems. “If we had rail links and equipped border checkpoints, formalising trade would become easier,” he said.

Idahosa suggested that improved infrastructure and real-time data collection systems could gradually integrate informal exports into the official economic framework.

The NEPC and NBS have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at improving the documentation of informal cross-border trade. Ayeni confirmed that collaborations are ongoing with the Central Bank of Nigeria and other agencies to bridge the data gap.

“We’re committed to ensuring that Nigeria’s non-oil export numbers not only grow but also reflect the actual trade happening across the country,” Ayeni stated.

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As Nigeria continues to diversify away from oil, getting accurate non-oil export data is critical. Stakeholders are calling for simplified processes, border infrastructure upgrades, and customs reform to close the significant data gaps that threaten to undermine one of Nigeria’s fastest-growing economic sectors.