Business
Nigeria Upstream Oil Resurgence Boosts Output, Revenue, Investor Trust
Nigeria upstream oil resurgence driven by reforms sees output, rigs, and reserves climb as NUPRC secures \$16bn investments and boosts fiscal revenue and jobs
The Nigeria upstream oil resurgence is gathering momentum, with rising crude output, a record rig count, and over \$16 billion in fresh investments.
Also read: Nigeria Non-Oil Export Data Rises to N3.17tn, as Data Gaps Fuel Debate
At the centre of this transformation is the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), led by Engr. Gbenga Komolafe.
Production has now climbed to 1.51 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude, or 1.7mbpd when condensates are included, surpassing Nigeria’s 1.5mbpd OPEC quota.
Experts say this progress is the result of regulatory reforms, strong policy execution, and improved engagement with host communities.
According to the NUPRC, the flagship Project One Million Barrels Per Day (1MMBOPD), launched in October 2024, has helped reposition Nigeria’s oil output to align with the national budget benchmark of 2.06mbpd.
Crude oil revenues account for more than 90 per cent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange, making the sector vital to infrastructure and social development.
“We are seeing the benefits of a stronger regulatory environment,” said Prof. Olu Ajakaiye. “If we are able to maintain the trajectory, we may likely have more new rigs, which will further increase our capacity.”
The rig count has surged from just eight in 2022 to 46 as of July 2025. Nigeria’s crude oil and gas reserves have also hit historic highs: 37.28 billion barrels of crude and 210.54 trillion cubic feet of gas.
To ensure transparency, the Commission initiated a Metering Audit and introduced the Advance Cargo Declaration system.
It also enabled remittances of N97bn and \$149m into Host Community Development Trust (HCDT) accounts from the statutory three per cent of operators’ expenses.
Abdulmajeed Amussah of DEER Nigeria praised the Commission’s crackdown on oil theft and vandalism, stating: “Production growth isn’t just about hitting numbers, it reflects stability, trust, and effective policy execution.”
Also read: Meristem Tips Oil, Banking Stocks to Gain From Rising Crude Prices
The Nigeria upstream oil resurgence is now seen as a signal of economic revival, with far-reaching impacts on inflation, revenue sharing, and investor confidence.
Tinubu Niger Delta summit opens in Port Harcourt as investors and policymakers gather to drive investment, innovation and industrial growth
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has set its initial public offering price at ₦525 per share, with the company seeking to raise about ₦2.15 trillion as it prepares to enter Nigeria’s public equities market.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the offer for 4.1 billion ordinary shares at ₦525 each. If fully subscribed, the offer would generate approximately ₦2.15 trillion, equivalent to about $1.6 billion at current exchange rates.
The offering is expected to open on 14 September 2026, according to Aliko Dangote, the president of Dangote Industries. The planned sale is positioned to become one of the largest equity offerings in Africa.
The IPO marks a significant step in Dangote Group’s plans to broaden ownership of the refinery and raise additional capital for expansion.
The refinery currently has a stated processing capacity of 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Dangote has said the company plans to increase that capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day as part of its longer-term expansion strategy.
The planned share sale follows a $1 billion underwriting programme completed in August, providing additional financial backing ahead of the public offering.
The refinery, located in the Lekki area of Lagos State, is one of Africa’s largest industrial projects and has become an increasingly important player in Nigeria’s fuel supply market since beginning operations.
The public offering will give Nigerian investors an opportunity to acquire shares in the refinery directly, while providing Dangote Petroleum Refinery with fresh capital to support its next phase of growth.
The company has also indicated ambitions to expand beyond its current Nigerian operations, with Dangote recently announcing plans for another refinery project in Kenya.
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