Connect with us

Opinion

Gainers and losers of Trump’s invasion threat…

Published

on

Trump

Bola BOLAWOLE

Nigeria-US diplomacy intensifies as political and military tensions rise, threatening stability in West Africa and the wider international order

adron lemon friday

“A 17th century English author, diplomat, and politician, Sir Henry Wotton (1568 – 1639), was quoted as describing, in 1604, an ambassador or diplomat as ‘an honest gentleman sent to lie abroad for the good of his country’”

Also read: Empowering Justice for All: Governor Aiyedatiwa’s Role as Ambassador of the Rule of Law

“How can an honest gentleman also tell lies?”

“That is the irony of it – but the statement is factual. It is exactly what diplomats do. Sir Henry spoke from the two angles of theory and practice”

“That was many centuries ago! I am sure events, especially civilization, must have overtaken such crudity”

“On the contrary! Sir Henry’s classical statement still holds true today. If a diplomat speaks and you immediately know what he means and where he is heading, then, he is a novice in the art”

“Really? We are admonished to call a spade a spade…!”

“Not in the world of diplomacy! And not as it pertains to relations between countries in the international political system. Are you aware that diplomats also spy for their country and even organize assassinations for its good?”

“L’o-ba-tan! And you call that ‘good’?”

“The world of diplomacy is trickish, delicate and deadly; strewn with all manner of dangerous ups-and-downs. Are you aware that Sir Henry paid dearly for his witty and satirical statement?“

“How?“

“The hegemon of his time, King James the First, heard of it and was sorely displeased. He caused Sir Henry to be disgraced!”

“That is serious, for such an innocuous statement?“

“He was even lucky! Some get killed for gaffes more trifling than that…”

“Then the world of diplomacy is a dangerous one”

“It is! When you are close to the corridors of power, you must be very careful with every statement and action of yours. Here in Nigeria, one top brass recently failed to, and he paid dearly for it, dragging some other unlucky folks along with him…”

“And who can that be?”

“Were you not in this country when there was a rumoured coup or no coup…”

“Oh! Yes, yes, yes…”

“Oh-ooo! Where is the person who made the confirmation? Tell me, is he still sitting pretty in his office?

“I seeee! But he tried to manage the situation very well…”

“Not well enough to the pleasure of the hegemon. They must have reasoned that he was not diplomatic enough…”

“You mean he did not lie enough?

“Exactly! Diplomats are masters of doublespeak, deceit, and subterfuge…”

“All for the good of their country…”

“You are a fast learner! Don’t you see how America has thrown the whole of Nigeria into confusion? A statement of a few words has kept Nigerians guessing, with Nigerian leaders running from pillar to post…”

“Even me, I am worried! We are not talking here about Liberia or Sierra Leone! The USA is the military hegemony of the world. I understand even the terrorists have started fleeing Nigeria!”

“Who dash monkey banana! But I, for one, am not worried. Those who are worried are those who took the words of President Donald Trump at their face value…”

“But he couldn’t have been more emphatic: Stop the genocide of Nigerian Christians or else…”

”You mean you don’t want the genocide to stop?“

“What of the dire consequences of foreign invasion? We have seen what the USA did everywhere they invaded. I think we should be left alone to tackle the problem ourselves”

“I am sorry, you will not! You cannot be trusted to do the needful. Since 1999, you have been left alone, but what have you done? Besides, stopping genocide is the least of the reasons why the USA will want to invade Nigeria, if it must. “

“Now you are getting my point! The USA can stop genocide in Nigeria simply by sneezing, just like they have done. They need not invade…”

“Donald Trump has become France’s Napoleon Bonaparte of our time? In his own days, it is written that when Napoleon sneezes, the whole of Europe catches cold!“

“So, you can see that they have a hidden agenda and ulterior motives if they still invade. Have you heard that the Yankees are after our resources? “

“I have heard, but that is not the reason…”

“They are angry at some of our policies and utterances…”

“I know, but that is not the reason…”

“Our membership of BRICS ails them…”

”Maybe, but that still is not the reason…”

”We spoke in support of Hamas, Iran..”

“Diplomats and world leaders schooled in the art of diplomacy sell dummies. You never get to know where they are coming from until they get to where they are going…”

“I am lost! Can it be Peter Obi that went to the US to engineer Trump against Nigeria?“

“ That one na small fry! America can use him, but he can never use America. Don’t compare sleep with death…”

“I really cannot understand why a superpower will flex muscles with a poor country like Nigeria; ordinary AK-47, we cannot produce locally…”

”But don’t you call yourself the ‘Giant of Africa’? Giant with clay feet! And don’t you say you are oil-rich? Wahala knocks on your door and you have started singing like a canary!”

“Shakara oloje, as Fela called it, is different from a real situation of trepidation that faces us now.”

“Whether you like it or not, America is coming; except they find a better way of serving their core national interest…”

“And what is that? “

“You think it was for fun that the hegemon here got really angry that a top military brass publicly and officially confirmed that there were rumblings in the military?”

“He said there was minor misdemeanor over failed exams, lack of promotion, and stagnant career…”

“And what fuels discontentment and grumblings in the military more than those?’

“I see! I never thought of it that way…”

”Assuming the masterminds were not caught before they could strike, think of the configuration… “

“Mostly Northern military officers, mostly Moslems as well! And against a sitting Yoruba president. That would be ‘June 12’ Part Two”

“Now add that to the Sahel states of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso where the military are in power via coup and have switched allegiance from the Western orbit to the ideological camp of Russia and China…”

“I am getting the point, but…”

“Wait! A northern, Muslim military president in Nigeria, joining forces with the military leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso; configure it! Nigeria is the ‘Giant of Africa’; one of its largest economies, and the undisputed hegemon of the West African sub-region…”

“Whaaoh! The picture is getting clearer! America will never allow that…”

“But it nearly happened! That some Nigerian military officers could even conjecture it is alarming…”

“Which is the more reason Trump should deliver massive help to Nigeria…”

“The one America delivered in the past, what happened to it? Corruption, compromise, conflict of interest, and incompetence ensured that everything went down the drains. What is more, the USA and the entire West now face existential threat to their economic and political interests in West Africa. I am sure you know coup can be contagious?

“Yes, which was why ECOWAS sanctioned the coupists, but instead of retracing their footsteps, those ones escalated the matter by quitting…”

“What message did that send to the US and the West? That Nigeria and ECOWAS are toothless bulldogs! It would have been better if ECOWAS had not barked at all. In the good old days of Liberia and Sierra Leone, what do you think ‘smoking gun’ Nigeria would have done?“

“Oh my! We would have wasted no time to force-feed them with Pax Nigeriana!”

“And you think the US and the West will sit idly by and watch the theatrics of the military leaders of the Sahel states, especially Ibrahim Traoro of Burkina Faso?”

“As sovereign states the Sahel states have a right to the leadership they desire…”

”On paper, yes; but in the realpolitik of the international political system as we have it today, strong nations have their way while weak nations suffer their fate”

“There is a new dimension to the matter. With China and Russia backing the Sahel states, the West African sub-region may soon become the theatre of war between the superpowers…”

“In that event, the US needs a military base close to the theatre of war…”

“Will Nigeria offer one? “

“If Nigeria does not, splinter-nations from Nigeria will…”

‘”You mean it can get that serious? “

“Oh! So you think it is a laughing matter? The US predicted that NIgeria would disintegrate 10 years ago. The likelihood is that they have been on the drawing board since then, biding their time…“

“And you think the time is ripe for them to strike now? “

“Something like it! Biafrans want to go; Yoruba want to exit; the Middle Belt is tired of Arewa; even the Hausa want to overthrow Fulani suzerainty…”

“So what you are saying is that it is no longer a question of whether but when…”

”And also of how: Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia? America’s core interests are two-fold: To prevent the contagion of military coups spreading to Nigeria; and to grab a launch pad to reverse what it sees as the madness of the Sahel states. Other reasons are mere addendums”

Also read: Empowering Justice for All: Governor Aiyedatiwa’s Role as Ambassador of the Rule of Law

“Complex; so complex! Looked at closely, isn’t it Buhari’s CPC (Congress of Progressive Change) that has brought Trump’s CPC (Country of Particular Concern) upon us in this country?”

63 / 100 SEO Score

Opinion

Seven prime ministers in a decade: What Nigeria can learn from Britain’s chaos

Published

on

Prime Minister

By Dr Toju Ogbe,

adron lemon friday

The resignation of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, less than two years after leading the Labour Party to  a landslide electoral victory, was dramatic, yet reflected a pattern we have become familiar with in recent British politics.

Also read: Church Leader Who Ushers: Low-Key Lifestyle of A Loud Prophet, Elijah Ayodele

Starmer now joins a procession of fallen prime ministers stretching back to 2016 – from David Cameron to Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak.

None of these prime ministers was ousted through military intervention, popular insurrection, or a court order. Rather, each was ultimately brought down by the same political system that elevated them to electoral glory.

To the casual observer, the rapid turnover of British Prime Ministers in the last decade may appear chaotic, or even a symptom of political instability. Some argue that the British electorate has become ungovernable.

However, beneath the apparent chaos at Westminster lies an uncomfortable truth that African democracies would do well to examine, particularly Nigerians who wonder why our democracy has delivered so little despite almost three decades of uninterrupted civilian rule.

The turbulence of British politics over the last decade, presents an important lesson on democratic accountability beyond successful elections.

Once the prime minister is deemed a liability by their own political party, the mechanics of accountability are activated. The daggers are quietly drawn and the ruthless pressure to resign begins.

Every poll and survey on public opinion is closely monitored, local election results are taken as a referendum on leadership. Cabinet resignations begin to gain momentum and backbenchers get restless.

Once the news media smells an internal uprising, they amplify scrutiny of the prime minister, subjecting every move – speech, public appearance, political misstep etc to relentless examination.

Pressure gradually mounts until the prospect of bitter internal leadership challenge becomes impossible to resist. The Prime Minister falls.

For every British Prime Minister, winning an election is merely the beginning of examination, not the end. Political survival lasts only for as long as the prime minister maintains the confidence of his party and the parliament.

This is the muscle of British democratic accountability; a political culture that prioritises institutional survival over individual ambition. Starmer recognised this reality in his resignation speech:

“The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace.”

That closing sentence alone is a masterclass in British institutional democracy. The party spoke. The leader listened. The correction comes from within.

 

Nigeria presents a strikingly different political logic.

Nigeria on the other hand, presents an interesting contrast with a different political logic and culture.

The notion that a governing party would overtly interrogate the performance of its own leader and engineer a transition to someone better equipped to maintain public confidence, is in most cases politically unthinkable in Nigeria.

Political parties in Nigeria do not coalesce  around ideological principles; rather, they operate more as electoral instruments organised around powerful individuals.

Internal dissent is often dealt with as betrayals rather than as part of healthy democratic engagement. Godfatherism and transactional loyalties shape political succession and leadership retention.

Once elected in Nigeria, there is an inherent assumption that a governor or president has a fixed two-term lease on power.

While 10 Downing Street is preparing to welcome its seventh Prime Minister in a decade, Nigeria, in contrast, has had only two democratically elected presidents during the same period – one of whom is still serving.

Social and economic conditions may deteriorate. Insecurity may worsen. Campaign promises may be ignored.

Public frustrations may become unbearable. Yet, incumbent governors and presidents often remain insulated from meaningful internal scrutiny and are even routinely anointed as ‘consensus’ candidate for second terms provided loyalties to godfathers, rather than the electorates are maintained.

The consequence is that loyalty, instead of performance is often rewarded at the expense of accountability.

This is not an argument for a revolving door at Aso Rock, as frequent leadership changes, by themselves, do not guarantee good governance.

Rather it is a case for making accountability an integral aspect of party politics in Nigeria.

Although the Nigerian presidential system provides for a fixed four-year term regardless of party confidence, political parties should however, be more than instruments for election campaigns, activated to simply retain or take over power every four years.

Electoral victory, should not be the ultimate goal, but the starting point of public service where democratic legitimacy must be continuously earned.

Equally important, political parties must develop the institutional maturity to honestly evaluate their own leaders. They must prioritise public interest and institutional credibility over loyalty to ‘Godfathers’.

The ultimate lesson from Westminster’s revolving door is clear: the true strength of a democratic system, lies not in the ability to produce leaders, but the capacity to effectively replace them, when they no longer command confidence.

Protecting failing leaders from accountability weakens democracy and political parties must ensure that no leader is more powerful than the institution.

Also read: Zamfara Governor, Dauda Lawal Shakes Up Cabinet, Moves Budget Commissioner to Education

As political parties gear up for the 2027 general elections, the political class must decide what matters more: we can continue to reward blind loyalty and endure predictable decline, or discover the courage to demand accountability from those who seek to lead us.

64 / 100 SEO Score
Continue Reading

Opinion

Chief Obafemi Awolowo and the fabric of Nigeria’s history and society

Published

on

Awolowo

By Sabella Ogbobode Abidde,

adron lemon friday

As a scholar, I have always wanted to edit or co-edit a book on the Big Ten of Nigerian nationalists, focusing on their lives, times, and generational impact from the nineteenth to the twenty-first century.

Also read: Abolish state of origin: A prerequisite for true national integration

An august list would include greats such as Aminu Kano, Herbert Macaulay, Nnamdi Azikiwe, Alvan Ikoku, Anthony Enahoro, Ahmadu Bello, Egbert Udo Udoma, Tafawa Balewa, Obafemi Awolowo, Eyo Ita, and Nnamdi Azikiwe. Two or more scholarly volumes would be ready before I bid farewell to my academic career.

But for now, this column briefly sheds light on a philosopher and mystic, who was also a political and economic giant: Chief Obafemi Awolowo.

His impact is multigenerational and wondrously woven into the fabric of Nigeria’s history, culture, and society.

Publicly available records indicate that the Nigerian nationalist movement began in the 1920s (Awolowo was born in 1909), so he had forebearers in the movement.

He later became one of the movement’s central figures, and by independence in October 1960, he had perhaps become the dominant personality shaping Nigeria’s political development and economic growth.

Awolowo was also a federalist. The first Premier of the Western region of Nigeria. The founder of the Yoruba nationalist group Egbe Omo Oduduwa.

He was the leader of the Action Group (AG), a political party and an opposition leader in the federal parliament, from 1959 to 1963.

A noted lawyer, author, journalist, and the founder and publisher of the Nigerian Tribune newspaper.

And in later years, under the first military regime, he served as the federal commissioner for finance and as vice chairman of the Federal Executive Council during the Nigerian-Biafran Civil War, 1967-1970.

Much later, Awolowo founded the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) and became the party’s presidential candidate in 1979 and 1983.

The consensus was that, on both occasions – especially in 1979 – the electoral body, acting at the behest of the then military regime, put its foot and thumb on the ballot-counting machines to the detriment of Awolowo.

In other words, those who voted didn’t count; the military counted and secured the votes for their preferred candidate.

Those officially sanctioned electoral irregularities, many Nigerians have asserted, partially account for why Nigeria has remained politically and economically miserable and socially chaotic in the years since.

And in the years since his passing, many of the so-called Awoists — men and women who claimed to be adherents and practitioners of his precepts — have fallen by the wayside.

They failed! By 1997, one rarely finds a school of politicians parading themselves as students of or members of the Awolowo Cathedral.

In the second decade of the twenty-first century, many politicians lack the impudence to call themselves Awoists.

The irony is that in the northern part of Nigeria, one can rarely find a pool of politicians who, today, adhere to the teachings and practices of Mallam Aminu Kano. And in the east, there are no more followers of Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe.

Many politicians, from the east to the west, from the north to the south, and from the middle belt to the south-south, have done away with ethics, morality, ideology, or remaining faithful to their political parties.

Most no longer care about party manifestos or going to the State House, National Assembly, or the Presidency with the people’s burden on their hearts or shoulders.

In public or in private, participants in the Nigerian political and economic space think nothing about integrity, posterity, nation-building, or national interest. It is mostly about self-interest now.

That is what Nigeria has become! Many of the good, effective, efficient, visionary, and purposeful Nigerians are in hiding, while the audaciously corrupt are masters of the game, leaders at various levels of governance.

And we expect to change for the better? Heck no! It is a painful three-ring circus at all three levels.

I do not for once contend that the Federal Republic of Nigeria is a lost cause, a lost experiment, a lost entity, or a forsaken project. No! It can be saved; it can be brought back from the edge of the cliff.

And I also do not for once think that Nigeria should be partitioned into three or four separate countries.

Oh, no! I believe that sustained, first-rate, courageous, and visionary leadership can turn the Nigerian ship around. It is doable. This is not a hopeless country. It is not!

Many of the institutions Awolowo built are still going strong. Many of his policies have been proven right and correct. Many of his teachings have been found to be the appropriate panaceas for Nigeria.

And many of the physical infrastructure projects he built lasted for more than four decades.

And so, imagine where Nigeria would be today on the development scale – on the same level as Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, China, and Australia? Or the oil-rich Middle East countries.

Not having Chief Obafemi Awolowo as the president of this federation set her back three to four decades.

Examined dispassionately, his economic and political achievements have yet to be rivaled for several decades after his premiership of the western region, and neither has his commissionership (now minister) of the finance portfolio.

He was good, he was great, and he was miles above his contemporaries in the development of their various regions and in their generational legacies.

Without Awolowo’s policies, much of southern Nigeria – especially the western region — would perhaps be one of the least developed in today’s Nigeria.

Directly and indirectly, Awolowo was the man who made it possible for millions of Nigerians and their offspring to dream of and have a better life.

He promised, he delivered; he built and encouraged others, such as Michael Adekunle Ajasin (Ondo State), Lateef Kayode Jakande (Lagos State), Bola Ige (Oyo State), and Olabisi Onabanjo (Ogun State), to be builders.

If General Yakubu Dan-Yumma Gowon was the most consequential military leader Nigeria has ever had, Chief Obafemi Jeremiah Oyeniyi Awolowo, was the single most consequential leader and public figure beginning with his premiership in 1954.

Above all else, he was a family man, a good man, a good Nigerian, and a Pan-Africanist. He was better than most and far better than we thought. That’s Awo for you, a man who’s woven into our consciousness.

Also read: Abolish state of origin: A prerequisite for true national integration

Chief Obafemi Awolowo would have been 117 this year, but he died at 78 in 1987 at his home in Ikenne, Ogun State. Chief Hannah Idowu Dideolu Awolowo, affectionally called HID, was Awolowo’s “jewel of inestimable value.” He had said of her: “I do not hesitate to confess that I owe my success in life to three factors: the Grace of God, a Spartan self-discipline, and a good wife. Our home is to all of us, a true haven; a place of happiness, and of imperturbable seclusion from the buffetings of life.” HID was born in Ikenne, in1915 and passed in 2015 in the same locality. She was 99. It was a union and a marriage that lasted for five glorious decades.

62 / 100 SEO Score
Continue Reading

Opinion

Church Leader Who Ushers: Low-Key Lifestyle of A Loud Prophet, Elijah Ayodele

Published

on

By

-by Folorunsho Hamsat

adron lemon friday

In today’s clout-chasing world, everyone wants to flaunt their connections, and demonstrate influence. But one famous spiritual leader is completely changing the game on what fame should look like. Meet the leader of INRI Evangelical Spiritual Church, Primate Elijah Ayodele, the Lagos based mega prophet who chooses to blend into the crowd.

Primate Ayodele is completely redefining spiritual leadership. While his prophetic voice thunders with undeniable authority on the global stage, his personal life is defined by deep, quiet humility. Those in his inner caucus say he does not chase trends or clout. He simply serves.

In a world where spiritual leaders are often expected to be showmen, Primate Ayodele presents a fascinating study in contrast. He is a man who is inherently reserved, yet his ministry commands global attention. He is a naturally quiet personality, but the sheer weight and precision of his prophecies make him appear like a remarkably loud person to the public.

Primate Ayodele’s prophetic ministry has expanded far beyond local borders, capturing the attention of nations across the globe. Renowned for his remarkably accurate insights into international politics, broad economic changes, and governance, Ayodele has quietly become a trusted confidant and friend to numerous men and women of timber and caliber.

Remarkably, Ayodele has direct access to top African presidents and world decision makers. The magic wand? His breathtaking accurate prophecies on global politics and economies that continue to win him honours across Africa, and beyond. However, he is hardly seen or heard bragging about it or dropping names to show off. He doesn’t chase clout, he delivers results, his people affirm. True power doesn’t need to make noise to be felt, Ayodele himself would say.

Church insiders squealed that if you walk into the Oke-Afa, Isolo headquarters of his ministry (where you almost always can find him) on a Sunday, good luck to you spotting him. This clearly shows how super shy and reserved Primate Ayodele really is. However, his voice only thunders when he stands on the altar to preach or drop his trademark prophetic warnings.

The true mark of Ayodele’s unique personality is, he can act as a president’s adviser on a Saturday, and happily serves as an ordinary usher in his own church on a Sunday!

Insiders confirm that once he steps off the altar, Primate Ayodele completely withdraws from the public eye. First-time visitors are said to be stunned because the world famous prophet blends right into the crowd. Within and outside his church, no massive security squad, no fancy exclusive prestige, and no ego.

During church services, we learned, Ayodele would roll up his sleeves and acts as a regular church usher. Sometimes, insiders revealed, he even stands right at the church’s entrance, mounting guard at the door to welcome guests and church members. Talk about ultimate servant leadership.

For Primate Ayodele, indeed, true spiritual power is beyond making a loud noise, but rather about making the biggest impact.

-Folorunsho Hamsat is a Lagos based journalist

40 / 100 SEO Score
Continue Reading

Trending News