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Ikúbọlájẹ: Rising Fears of Political Marginalisation in Ijebuland

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Ogun East political marginalisation concerns grow as fears mount over losing ranking influence ahead of the 2027 elections

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There comes a time in the life of a people when silence becomes dangerous; when indifference becomes betrayal; when watching events unfold quietly becomes an unforgivable act against generations yet unborn.

Also read: Power, Memory and Ambition: Inside Abiodun’s Senate Gamble

That moment may have arrived for Ijebuland and indeed the entirety of Ogun East Senatorial District.

In Yoruba cosmology, there is a haunting expression –“Ikú bọlá jẹ́”– death that comes to consume honour, dignity, prestige and relevance.

Today, many in Ogun East fear that what looms before them politically is not merely exclusion, but a slow, calculated erosion of political influence; an Ikúbọlájẹ! of historic proportions.

The question before the people is simple: Can Ogun East afford to lose a Ranking Senator in 2027?

This is not about sentiment.

It is not about vanity. It is about political arithmetic, influence, federal presence, and equitable development.

The reality of Nigeria’s legislative politics is harsh but undeniable: ranking matters.

Seniority matters.

Committee leadership matters. Institutional influence matters.

The rules of the National Assembly are not governed by emotions or sympathy; they are governed by hierarchy, legislative standing, networks, and accumulated influence.

A Ranking Senator does not merely occupy a seat in Abuja; he occupies strategic tables where national priorities are negotiated, projects are influenced, interventions are secured, and development opportunities are shaped.

This is beyond the powers of even the President to arbitrarily guarantee. No presidential goodwill can permanently replace institutional leverage.

In Nigeria’s political reality, regions that command ranking legislators often enjoy stronger access to critical infrastructure, federal appointments, interventions, and policy attention.

As Ogun State gradually moves toward the political future of 2027, an uncomfortable imbalance appears to be emerging.

Ogun West, many argue, is already politically secured, with the strong possibility of gubernatorial leadership under Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi) emerging in power.

Ogun Central, on the other hand, would also enjoy the advantage of a Ranking Senator with institutional visibility and legislative influence irrespective of whoever eventually emerges between incumbent Senator Shuaib Afolabi Salisu and formal governor, Sen. IbikunleAmosun.

But what then becomes of Ogun East?

Should Ijebuland and Ogun East willingly surrender the strategic advantage of returning a Ranking Senator to the National Assembly?

Would that not amount to voluntarily weakening their bargaining power at the federal level?

Would that not create an uneven political structure in which two senatorial districts possess significant institutional leverage while one is left to hope for goodwill?

And in politics, goodwill without power is often a costly illusion.

What is fair is fair.

Equity demands that no senatorial district should be politically diminished for the comfort or ambition of others.

Ogun East deserves not pity, not tokenism, but fair political representation capable of competing at the highest levels of legislative influence.

Many elders and political observers quietly worry that denying Ogun East the opportunity to return a Ranking Senator may unintentionally place the district at a developmental disadvantage for years to come.

Whether roads, institutions, educational projects, healthcare interventions, or federal presence, representation matters; and ranking often amplifies representation.

This is why many now ask difficult questions.

If the late and revered Awujale of Ijebuland, His Imperial Majesty, Oba Sikiru Kayode Adetona, had been alive, would the present fears of political marginalisation have gained this much momentum?

Few monarchs in modern Nigerian history commanded such moral authority, courage, and political gravitas.

The Awujale was never known to watch quietly when the dignity, pride, or collective interest of Ijebuland appeared threatened. His voice carried weight beyond palace walls.

His influence travelled beyond partisan lines.

His absence today leaves many wondering whether Ijebuland is entering a vulnerable political season, one where decisions affecting its future may increasingly be taken without sufficient resistance.

Naturally, questions have also emerged around the continued delay in the emergence of a new Awujale.

While there may be institutional and bureaucratic excuses for the delay, public anxiety continues to grow, with some asking whether the timing may inadvertently weaken Ijebuland’s collective political voice at a critical historical moment.

These are uncomfortable questions, yes. But difficult moments demand difficult conversations.

For the people of Ogun East, 2027 may not simply be another election cycle.

It may become a referendum on relevance.

A referendum on influence.

A referendum on whether Ijebuland chooses strategic political preservation or gradual political weakening.

History is often cruel to people who surrender power and later hope to negotiate from weakness.

The time to think is now.

The time to speak is now.

The time to insist on fairness is now.

For if honour is lost in silence, posterity may remember this moment with only one painful expression:

Also read: Protesters march over Awujale throne in Ijebu Ode

Ikúbọlájẹ!

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Tinubu’s Biggest Opponent Is Not Obi or Atiku… It’s Tinubu

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Tinubu

By Moses Braimah

“A government that spends more time explaining the opposition than explaining its achievements may already know where its real problem lies.” (more…)

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Seven prime ministers in a decade: What Nigeria can learn from Britain’s chaos

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Prime Minister

By Dr Toju Ogbe,

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The resignation of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, less than two years after leading the Labour Party to  a landslide electoral victory, was dramatic, yet reflected a pattern we have become familiar with in recent British politics.

Also read: Church Leader Who Ushers: Low-Key Lifestyle of A Loud Prophet, Elijah Ayodele

Starmer now joins a procession of fallen prime ministers stretching back to 2016 – from David Cameron to Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak.

None of these prime ministers was ousted through military intervention, popular insurrection, or a court order. Rather, each was ultimately brought down by the same political system that elevated them to electoral glory.

To the casual observer, the rapid turnover of British Prime Ministers in the last decade may appear chaotic, or even a symptom of political instability. Some argue that the British electorate has become ungovernable.

However, beneath the apparent chaos at Westminster lies an uncomfortable truth that African democracies would do well to examine, particularly Nigerians who wonder why our democracy has delivered so little despite almost three decades of uninterrupted civilian rule.

The turbulence of British politics over the last decade, presents an important lesson on democratic accountability beyond successful elections.

Once the prime minister is deemed a liability by their own political party, the mechanics of accountability are activated. The daggers are quietly drawn and the ruthless pressure to resign begins.

Every poll and survey on public opinion is closely monitored, local election results are taken as a referendum on leadership. Cabinet resignations begin to gain momentum and backbenchers get restless.

Once the news media smells an internal uprising, they amplify scrutiny of the prime minister, subjecting every move – speech, public appearance, political misstep etc to relentless examination.

Pressure gradually mounts until the prospect of bitter internal leadership challenge becomes impossible to resist. The Prime Minister falls.

For every British Prime Minister, winning an election is merely the beginning of examination, not the end. Political survival lasts only for as long as the prime minister maintains the confidence of his party and the parliament.

This is the muscle of British democratic accountability; a political culture that prioritises institutional survival over individual ambition. Starmer recognised this reality in his resignation speech:

“The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace.”

That closing sentence alone is a masterclass in British institutional democracy. The party spoke. The leader listened. The correction comes from within.

 

Nigeria presents a strikingly different political logic.

Nigeria on the other hand, presents an interesting contrast with a different political logic and culture.

The notion that a governing party would overtly interrogate the performance of its own leader and engineer a transition to someone better equipped to maintain public confidence, is in most cases politically unthinkable in Nigeria.

Political parties in Nigeria do not coalesce  around ideological principles; rather, they operate more as electoral instruments organised around powerful individuals.

Internal dissent is often dealt with as betrayals rather than as part of healthy democratic engagement. Godfatherism and transactional loyalties shape political succession and leadership retention.

Once elected in Nigeria, there is an inherent assumption that a governor or president has a fixed two-term lease on power.

While 10 Downing Street is preparing to welcome its seventh Prime Minister in a decade, Nigeria, in contrast, has had only two democratically elected presidents during the same period – one of whom is still serving.

Social and economic conditions may deteriorate. Insecurity may worsen. Campaign promises may be ignored.

Public frustrations may become unbearable. Yet, incumbent governors and presidents often remain insulated from meaningful internal scrutiny and are even routinely anointed as ‘consensus’ candidate for second terms provided loyalties to godfathers, rather than the electorates are maintained.

The consequence is that loyalty, instead of performance is often rewarded at the expense of accountability.

This is not an argument for a revolving door at Aso Rock, as frequent leadership changes, by themselves, do not guarantee good governance.

Rather it is a case for making accountability an integral aspect of party politics in Nigeria.

Although the Nigerian presidential system provides for a fixed four-year term regardless of party confidence, political parties should however, be more than instruments for election campaigns, activated to simply retain or take over power every four years.

Electoral victory, should not be the ultimate goal, but the starting point of public service where democratic legitimacy must be continuously earned.

Equally important, political parties must develop the institutional maturity to honestly evaluate their own leaders. They must prioritise public interest and institutional credibility over loyalty to ‘Godfathers’.

The ultimate lesson from Westminster’s revolving door is clear: the true strength of a democratic system, lies not in the ability to produce leaders, but the capacity to effectively replace them, when they no longer command confidence.

Protecting failing leaders from accountability weakens democracy and political parties must ensure that no leader is more powerful than the institution.

Also read: Zamfara Governor, Dauda Lawal Shakes Up Cabinet, Moves Budget Commissioner to Education

As political parties gear up for the 2027 general elections, the political class must decide what matters more: we can continue to reward blind loyalty and endure predictable decline, or discover the courage to demand accountability from those who seek to lead us.

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Chief Obafemi Awolowo and the fabric of Nigeria’s history and society

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Awolowo

By Sabella Ogbobode Abidde,

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As a scholar, I have always wanted to edit or co-edit a book on the Big Ten of Nigerian nationalists, focusing on their lives, times, and generational impact from the nineteenth to the twenty-first century.

Also read: Abolish state of origin: A prerequisite for true national integration

An august list would include greats such as Aminu Kano, Herbert Macaulay, Nnamdi Azikiwe, Alvan Ikoku, Anthony Enahoro, Ahmadu Bello, Egbert Udo Udoma, Tafawa Balewa, Obafemi Awolowo, Eyo Ita, and Nnamdi Azikiwe. Two or more scholarly volumes would be ready before I bid farewell to my academic career.

But for now, this column briefly sheds light on a philosopher and mystic, who was also a political and economic giant: Chief Obafemi Awolowo.

His impact is multigenerational and wondrously woven into the fabric of Nigeria’s history, culture, and society.

Publicly available records indicate that the Nigerian nationalist movement began in the 1920s (Awolowo was born in 1909), so he had forebearers in the movement.

He later became one of the movement’s central figures, and by independence in October 1960, he had perhaps become the dominant personality shaping Nigeria’s political development and economic growth.

Awolowo was also a federalist. The first Premier of the Western region of Nigeria. The founder of the Yoruba nationalist group Egbe Omo Oduduwa.

He was the leader of the Action Group (AG), a political party and an opposition leader in the federal parliament, from 1959 to 1963.

A noted lawyer, author, journalist, and the founder and publisher of the Nigerian Tribune newspaper.

And in later years, under the first military regime, he served as the federal commissioner for finance and as vice chairman of the Federal Executive Council during the Nigerian-Biafran Civil War, 1967-1970.

Much later, Awolowo founded the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) and became the party’s presidential candidate in 1979 and 1983.

The consensus was that, on both occasions – especially in 1979 – the electoral body, acting at the behest of the then military regime, put its foot and thumb on the ballot-counting machines to the detriment of Awolowo.

In other words, those who voted didn’t count; the military counted and secured the votes for their preferred candidate.

Those officially sanctioned electoral irregularities, many Nigerians have asserted, partially account for why Nigeria has remained politically and economically miserable and socially chaotic in the years since.

And in the years since his passing, many of the so-called Awoists — men and women who claimed to be adherents and practitioners of his precepts — have fallen by the wayside.

They failed! By 1997, one rarely finds a school of politicians parading themselves as students of or members of the Awolowo Cathedral.

In the second decade of the twenty-first century, many politicians lack the impudence to call themselves Awoists.

The irony is that in the northern part of Nigeria, one can rarely find a pool of politicians who, today, adhere to the teachings and practices of Mallam Aminu Kano. And in the east, there are no more followers of Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe.

Many politicians, from the east to the west, from the north to the south, and from the middle belt to the south-south, have done away with ethics, morality, ideology, or remaining faithful to their political parties.

Most no longer care about party manifestos or going to the State House, National Assembly, or the Presidency with the people’s burden on their hearts or shoulders.

In public or in private, participants in the Nigerian political and economic space think nothing about integrity, posterity, nation-building, or national interest. It is mostly about self-interest now.

That is what Nigeria has become! Many of the good, effective, efficient, visionary, and purposeful Nigerians are in hiding, while the audaciously corrupt are masters of the game, leaders at various levels of governance.

And we expect to change for the better? Heck no! It is a painful three-ring circus at all three levels.

I do not for once contend that the Federal Republic of Nigeria is a lost cause, a lost experiment, a lost entity, or a forsaken project. No! It can be saved; it can be brought back from the edge of the cliff.

And I also do not for once think that Nigeria should be partitioned into three or four separate countries.

Oh, no! I believe that sustained, first-rate, courageous, and visionary leadership can turn the Nigerian ship around. It is doable. This is not a hopeless country. It is not!

Many of the institutions Awolowo built are still going strong. Many of his policies have been proven right and correct. Many of his teachings have been found to be the appropriate panaceas for Nigeria.

And many of the physical infrastructure projects he built lasted for more than four decades.

And so, imagine where Nigeria would be today on the development scale – on the same level as Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, China, and Australia? Or the oil-rich Middle East countries.

Not having Chief Obafemi Awolowo as the president of this federation set her back three to four decades.

Examined dispassionately, his economic and political achievements have yet to be rivaled for several decades after his premiership of the western region, and neither has his commissionership (now minister) of the finance portfolio.

He was good, he was great, and he was miles above his contemporaries in the development of their various regions and in their generational legacies.

Without Awolowo’s policies, much of southern Nigeria – especially the western region — would perhaps be one of the least developed in today’s Nigeria.

Directly and indirectly, Awolowo was the man who made it possible for millions of Nigerians and their offspring to dream of and have a better life.

He promised, he delivered; he built and encouraged others, such as Michael Adekunle Ajasin (Ondo State), Lateef Kayode Jakande (Lagos State), Bola Ige (Oyo State), and Olabisi Onabanjo (Ogun State), to be builders.

If General Yakubu Dan-Yumma Gowon was the most consequential military leader Nigeria has ever had, Chief Obafemi Jeremiah Oyeniyi Awolowo, was the single most consequential leader and public figure beginning with his premiership in 1954.

Above all else, he was a family man, a good man, a good Nigerian, and a Pan-Africanist. He was better than most and far better than we thought. That’s Awo for you, a man who’s woven into our consciousness.

Also read: Abolish state of origin: A prerequisite for true national integration

Chief Obafemi Awolowo would have been 117 this year, but he died at 78 in 1987 at his home in Ikenne, Ogun State. Chief Hannah Idowu Dideolu Awolowo, affectionally called HID, was Awolowo’s “jewel of inestimable value.” He had said of her: “I do not hesitate to confess that I owe my success in life to three factors: the Grace of God, a Spartan self-discipline, and a good wife. Our home is to all of us, a true haven; a place of happiness, and of imperturbable seclusion from the buffetings of life.” HID was born in Ikenne, in1915 and passed in 2015 in the same locality. She was 99. It was a union and a marriage that lasted for five glorious decades.

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