Opinion
Collapse After a Landslide: Starmer’s Fall May Not be The Last
Published
2 months agoon
By Azu Ishiekwene
It was painful to watch him outside No.10 on Monday. Despite his immaculate suit and well-groomed hair, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer looked like he was facing a public execution.
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The bespoke podium, which had been in use since David Cameron’s tenure, looked more like a stake, and Starmer’s valedictory like a miserere before the bullets would be discharged.
The carnage that British politics has become has just claimed its sixth prime minister in a decade. Britain is not doing as badly as Italy – yet – which had 50 governments and 15 prime ministers between 1946 and 1994, but at the current rate, it’s not doing badly at becoming Europe’s next Britaly, as The Economist once described it.
Which is all difficult to understand, given that for the two-and-a-half years of his premiership, Starmer never failed to remind voters that he came to power in one of the largest electoral landslides in recent British history.
Not entirely untrue. Labour won 411 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, a majority of 174 seats over all other parties combined. Starmer’s Labour was the largest party in England, Scotland and Wales, and the first government since 2010 to end 14 years of Conservative rule.
Landslide, backslide
So, what happened? Boris Johnson, who had a chaotic and scandal-ridden premiership, has suggested that Starmer won because the Conservatives collapsed rather than due to voter enthusiasm for Labour.
He told Sky News that Starmer lost because he was a stumbling block who stood in the way instead of providing vision and leadership, virtues that I’m not sure Johnson would recognise, even in plain sight.
He was being half-clear. He conveniently forgot that his wrong-headed decision to remove Britain from the European Union is part of the price his successors, including Starmer, have had to pay. Starmer’s successor, Andy Burnham, will also be paying for it.
A study by researchers affiliated with institutions including the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Bank of England estimated that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by between six and eight per cent relative to a non-Brexit scenario.
Business investment was down nearly 18 per cent, while productivity and employment also went down.
Post-Brexit, the British economy has been fragile, and the cost-of-living crisis has taken a toll on the middle class and pensioners. Young British adults are poorer than their parents were.
Complications, complications
Yet, none of this should have come as a surprise to Starmer. He knew that the economy was fragile, that the cost of living was rising, and public services were stretched when he campaigned to provide economic stability, fiscal discipline and a competent government.
When he positioned himself as everything to everyone, that strategic ambivalence helped him to win; it couldn’t keep him in power.
He not only knew the mess that Brexit had left the country in, but he also knew that the country was yet to fully recover from the COVID-19 supply chain disruptions and massive payouts, which added billions of pounds to the national debt, apart from the losses to fraud, estimated by a Reuters report at £10.9 billion.
The US-Israel war on Iran has piled on the chaotic fallouts of the Russia-Ukraine war, raising food prices and energy costs around the world and forcing many UK households to deal with levels of inflation that they had not experienced for years.
Every UK prime minister after Johnson – from Liz Truss to Rishi Sunak and Starmer – has had to contend with the economic legacy of three successive shocks: Brexit, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and now, the Middle East crisis.
Politics, poetry and prose
Yet, when politicians campaign, their poetry distorts our common sense, and we’re seduced by the hope that perhaps, just perhaps, it might be different this time.
But Starmer knew there was not much he could do. When he said before the election that Labour would not increase taxes, for example, he knew he would not find the money to plug the hole. So, he was forced to make a U-turn.
When he promised welfare reforms and fiscal discipline, he knew he was speaking with both sides of his mouth. But that was what his voters, especially his base and the campaign groups, wanted to hear.
And when he promised a clean, competent government – a departure from the sleaze years – Peter Mandelson was smiling, waiting to snooker him. The outcome was a shambles for the government’s reputation.
And when Starmer was boasting about a landslide, he knew that the result of the election that brought him to power was more nuanced. It was a victory by default.
While Tony Blair, for example, won 43.2 per cent of the popular vote share in 1997, Starmer won only 33.7 per cent, reflecting a far narrower popular mandate than he cared to admit publicly.
According to a YouGov Poll, among the people who voted Labour in 2024 and then participated in the 2026 local elections, only 46 per cent remained with Labour.
About 22 per cent moved to the Greens, 16 per cent to the Liberal Democrats, while 6 per cent moved to Reform UK.
With a drastic decline in public trust of politicians and public institutions, it’s not surprising that Starmer’s landslide fizzled before he could fully milk it.
The palace coup that forced out the Prime Minister was not because Labour MPs loved him less, but because they love themselves more.
Wheeling in Burnham from the shadows to No.10 was a move by the Backbenchers to buy time and fend off the lunacy of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party.
Talking big
Burnham has started by announcing big, obviously more left-wing Labour policies, from removing VAT on domestic electricity bills for six months to restoring the £2 cap on single bus fares across England, and from expanded housebuilding to greater public investment outside London.
He has also talked about increasing defence spending, while whispers of “nationalisation” have even been heard.
But it won’t be long before he might stumble on the question that has snagged his six predecessors: where will the money come from? Once upon a United Kingdom, when the country was at the peak of its powers, it controlled nearly 20 per cent of the world’s manufacturing output, which, of course, was after it robbed India, among others, of its pre-industrial manufacturing dominance and converted it into a primary producing country.
At the height of Britain’s influence, one-quarter of the earth’s surface was its farmland. Those days are gone.
Copying Italy?
The world has changed since Britannia ruled the waves. While Britain remains one of the world’s leading economies, its current sunset phase has taken a heavy toll on its prosperity.
Strong alignment with NATO and the European Community, which later became the EU, helped Italy navigate its turbulent years. Unfortunately, Britain chose to leave the EU when it needed it most.
The last thing the country needs is a premier who sells hope at a high price. Burnham positioned himself as a beacon for his stranded Labour Party.
Also read: Governor Dauda Lawal Signs Landmark Education Reform Orders, Rolls Out National Curriculum in Schools
Yet his record in Manchester urges caution. Already, he is making expensive, even extravagant promises that may come back to bite him. At this rate, he may well not be the last prime minister before the general election in 2029.
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By Nosa Osaikhuiwu,
Nigeria’s teeming population should be viewed not as a burden but as an enormous economic asset that can and must be harnessed for national economic transformation and sustainable development.
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With a population already exceeding 200 million and projected to approach 300 million by the end of the century, Nigeria cannot afford to continue responding only to the challenges of today. We must begin implementing policies that anticipate the economic, social and employment challenges of tomorrow.
One of Nigeria’s most urgent challenges is unemployment, particularly among young people. This problem affects both graduates and the much larger segment of our population without formal education or marketable technical skills. The fundamental question, therefore, is not simply how government can create jobs, but how government can create the economic conditions under which millions of sustainable jobs can be created by the private sector.
Recognizing the Necessary Economic Reforms
Before addressing job creation, it is important to acknowledge some of the major economic reforms undertaken by the current administration.
While these policies have been unpopular in some quarters and have imposed significant hardship on households and businesses, the removal of fuel subsidies and the move toward greater alignment of foreign-exchange rates were, in my view, necessary steps toward restoring some degree of economic stability.
The manner and timing of implementation can certainly be debated. However, it is difficult to dispute that maintaining a system in which government could no longer sustainably finance fuel subsidies, while simultaneously maintaining significant distortions in the foreign-exchange market, was becoming increasingly untenable.
The immediate consequences have been severe for millions of Nigerians. Nevertheless, if these reforms are properly managed and followed by policies that stimulate production, investment and employment, Nigeria can ultimately emerge stronger.
However, some of the noise in some political quarters about reversing the fuel subsidy removal is not only disingenuous, it is playing to the gallery of public sentiments which betrays a lack of seriousness on their part.
The next phase, therefore, must be about growth, production and job creation. Manufacturing Is Essential: But Manufacturing Alone Is Not Enough
I strongly agree with the position repeatedly expressed by Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote that manufacturing is critical to job creation in Nigeria.
Manufacturing creates direct employment in factories, but its impact extends far beyond the factory floor. It creates demand for raw materials, transportation, logistics, warehousing, engineering, maintenance, packaging, distribution, financial services and countless other activities.
However, I would take this argument one step further, because a sustainable manufacturing industry requires demand.
A factory can produce thousands of beds, furniture sets, refrigerators, or other locally manufactured products, but production cannot continue indefinitely if consumers lack the purchasing power to buy those products. This is where government policy must become more sophisticated.
Rather than government attempting to employ everyone directly, it should create an economic environment in which production generates employment and employment generates purchasing power, which in turn creates demand for more production. That is the economic cycle Nigeria must deliberately build.
Creating a National Credit Economy
One of the most powerful instruments available to us is a properly regulated consumer and business credit system. In advanced economies, access to responsible credit has played an important role in improving living standards and expanding economic activity.
Consumers do not necessarily have to possess the full amount of money required to purchase a house, vehicle, furniture or other durable goods before making the purchase.
Properly structured credit allows them to acquire those goods today and pay over time. That creates immediate demand for manufactured products.
The manufacturer receives payment. The factory continues producing. Workers retain their jobs. Suppliers receive orders. Transporters move products.
Financial institutions earn interest. Government receives taxes. Employees spend their income elsewhere in the economy. One transaction can therefore generate an economic chain far larger than the original purchase.
The Following Steps Are Essential
- Establish a Unified National Database
Nigeria needs a comprehensive national database integrating biometric information and a unique National Identification Number for every citizen and legally resident person. A reliable identity infrastructure is fundamental to modern financial services, taxation, credit assessment, social programs and economic planning.
- Reform the Credit Bureau System
Credit bureau legislation should be strengthened and modernized, allowing banks and regulated financial institutions to play a greater role in developing a robust credit-information ecosystem, subject to strong government regulatory oversight. Every Nigerian who participates in the formal financial system should gradually develop a verifiable credit history. Good financial behavior should have benefits. Persistent default should have consequences.
- Accelerate the Transition to a Cashless Economy
Nigeria should establish a realistic but ambitious transition toward a predominantly cashless economy within 36 months. This should not be about punishing Nigerians who use cash. It should be about creating a transparent, traceable and efficient financial system that reduces the size of the informal cash economy and makes it easier to assess income, spending, creditworthiness and tax obligations.
- Gradually Restrict Excessive Cash Transactions
Government should consider progressively restricting large cash withdrawals and transactions, with appropriate exemptions for legitimate businesses and special circumstances. Such a policy must, however, be carefully designed so that it does not inadvertently harm small businesses or citizens who remain outside the formal banking system. The objective should be financial inclusion and transparency, not financial exclusion.
- Expand Consumer and Manufacturer Financing
Legislation and regulation should facilitate financing arrangements through which manufacturers can sell locally produced goods to consumers on credit while financial institutions assume and manage the repayment risk. Imagine a Nigerian family being able to purchase locally manufactured furniture, beds, household appliances or other durable goods and pay over 12, 24 or 36 months.
The manufacturer gets paid.
The consumer gets the product.
The bank earns legitimate interest.
The factory continues producing.
Workers remain employed.
And the economy expands.
This is the kind of demand-induced economic growth Nigeria should pursue.
But Credit Requires Culture Change
There is, however, a major obstacle to implementing such a system in Nigeria. Credit cannot function effectively without trust, integrity and a culture of repayment.
This brings us directly to what I have identified in my previous writings as the QUAD – four interconnected cultural problems that continue to undermine Nigeria’s development:
- Unethical behavior
- Greed
- Lack of integrity
- Permissiveness—the “Oga Abeg” culture
Too many Nigerians have historically viewed loans and government-supported credit schemes as free money that should not necessarily be repaid. That mindset must change.
If a person obtains a bank loan to purchase locally manufactured furniture, a vehicle, equipment or other goods, repayment is not optional. It is a contractual obligation. Failure to repay should affect the individual’s ability to access future financial services.
A properly integrated financial architecture should ensure that a poor credit record follows a borrower across regulated financial institutions and digital financial platforms, subject to due process and appropriate consumer protections.
Banks, fintech companies and regulated payment platforms should be able to participate in a credible national credit-information ecosystem.
But this cannot be achieved through regulation alone. Nigeria needs a massive national public-awareness campaign on the meaning of credit, contractual obligations and financial responsibility. This is another example of why economic transformation without culture change will remain incomplete.
Rethinking Youth Employment
We cannot continue producing millions of graduates who are jobless while simultaneously importing technicians and skilled workers and leaving young Nigerians without practical skills or employment opportunities.
The recent initiative by the Federal Government of Nigeria under the Tinubu/Shettima Administration to reform the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) is commendable.
However, the reform of the NYSC will be incomplete if it does not transition NYSC into a National Skills and Apprenticeship Program that will help train and equip our young men and women with skills that will help them earn a living as entrepreneurs or be gainfully employed.
Nigeria must also rethink the purpose of education. I would advocate an optional SECOND year of National Service dedicated specifically to skills acquisition and apprenticeship.
Young Nigerians could receive structured training in areas such as:
- Automobile technology and diagnostics
- Electrical installation and maintenance
- Construction management
- Fashion and design
- Collision repair and auto bodywork
- Agriculture and poultry operations
- Welding and fabrication
- Firefighting and emergency services
- Computer hardware and maintenance
- Software development
- App development
- Coding and programming
- Artificial intelligence
- Renewable energy technology
- Plumbing
- Refrigeration and air-conditioning
- Industrial maintenance
The program should be developed in partnership with private-sector employers, manufacturers, technical institutions and professional bodies.
At the end of the program, participants should receive a nationally recognized industry certification demonstrating basic professional competence.
This would transform NYSC from merely a national service program into a major national workforce-development and apprenticeship system.
The Automobile Sector Alone Offers Enormous Opportunities
Consider the automobile sector. Nigeria has millions of vehicles on the road, yet many mechanics operate without formal training. At the same time, modern vehicles are increasingly computerized and technologically sophisticated.
The mechanic of tomorrow will need to understand electronics, diagnostics, computer systems, sensors and software, not merely engines and mechanical components.
A national automotive apprenticeship program could therefore create hundreds of thousands of skilled technicians over time while reducing dependence on foreign expertise.
The same principle applies to virtually every technical occupation. Nigeria does not have a shortage of work. Nigeria has a shortage of properly organized opportunities to convert work into productive employment and enterprise.
Ethanol: Turning Agriculture into Energy and Employment
Another opportunity lies in the development of an ethanol-blended fuel program. Nigeria should seriously consider adopting a national ethanol-blending policy, potentially beginning with a 10 percent blend and progressively evaluating higher blends based on technical and economic feasibility. Such a policy could stimulate demand for cassava, maize and other suitable feedstocks.
That demand would create opportunities for farmers, agricultural aggregators, and brokers, processing companies, logistics operators, transporters, equipment suppliers and storage facilities.
The economic impact would therefore extend far beyond the ethanol plant itself. Rather than importing every unit of energy we consume, Nigeria could create a domestic agricultural-energy value chain.
With the right policies, this could generate substantial employment over time. The precise number of jobs should, of course, be determined through detailed feasibility studies, but the principle is compelling: energy policy can simultaneously become agricultural policy, industrial policy and employment policy.
Security and Employment
Nigeria’s security crisis also requires a fundamentally different approach. We need to build a much stronger human-intelligence capability at the community level.
A large national network of trained intelligence personnel could provide communities, security agencies and government with timely information about criminal activity, kidnapping networks, banditry and terrorism.
Such a program would need to be carefully structured, professionally trained, legally regulated and integrated with existing security agencies. It must not become an uncontrolled vigilante system.
The objective should be to create a professional intelligence architecture in which ordinary citizens can become an additional source of reliable information for national security.
Security itself can therefore become an area of structured employment while simultaneously strengthening the country’s ability to prevent crime.
Government Should Stop Trying to Be the Entrepreneur
Another important component of Nigeria’s economic transformation should be a gradual reduction in government’s ownership and management of commercial enterprises.
Government’s principal responsibility should be to provide:
- Clear regulations
- Infrastructure
- Security
- Efficient taxation
- Reliable identity systems
- Access to finance
- Fair competition
- Effective institutions
The private sector should increasingly be allowed to serve as the primary engine of production, innovation and employment. Government does not have to own every factory in order to create jobs. It needs to create the enabling environment in which thousands of factories can be profitably established and operated by Nigerians and investors.
Thus, I recommend that the Tinubu/Shettima Administration completely privatize the NNPCL refineries and if there no takers decommission them as they have become a source waste, fraud and abuse.
Affordable Housing as an Economic Engine
Housing provides another powerful example of demand-induced growth. Nigeria should develop long-term mortgage financing, initially targeting public servants such as police officers and members of the armed forces, with mortgage payments deducted directly from salaries.
A properly structured 10 to 15-year mortgage scheme could allow workers to acquire homes while creating demand across an enormous range of industries.
A single housing project requires:
- Cement
- Steel
- Doors and windows
- Electrical equipment
- Plumbing materials
- Tiles
- Furniture
- Roofing materials
- Engineering services
- Architects
- Surveyors
- Lawyers
- Transporters
- Laborers
- Security services
Housing finance therefore does much more than provide shelter. It creates an economic ecosystem. Once properly established and proven, such schemes could be expanded to the wider population, with government providing the regulatory framework while private financial institutions and developers provide the capital and expertise.
The Bigger Picture
Nigeria’s unemployment problem cannot be solved by government simply announcing another recruitment exercise. Nor can it be solved by distributing temporary cash transfers indefinitely.
We need to create an economic system in which people have the skills to work, businesses have the capacity to produce, consumers have the purchasing power to buy, financial institutions can responsibly provide credit, and borrowers understand that credit must be repaid.
That requires simultaneous reforms in education, finance, manufacturing, agriculture, energy, housing, security and culture.
Most importantly, it requires a change in mindset. We must move away from the belief that government is responsible for providing everything and toward a system in which government creates the conditions for citizens and businesses to become productive economic participants.
Nigeria’s population should not frighten us, but should inspire us. Two hundred million Nigerians represent two hundred million potential consumers, workers, entrepreneurs, farmers, engineers, technicians, inventors and business owners.
If properly educated, properly organized and connected to functioning markets and financial systems, this population can become one of Nigeria’s greatest economic advantages.
But population alone is not an asset. A productive population is an asset. And productivity requires skills, integrity, and access to capital, infrastructure, security and demand.
That is why Nigeria’s next economic strategy should not focus exclusively on increasing production. We must also deliberately create the purchasing power that sustains production.
The objective should be simple:
Produce more.
Buy more.
Employ more.
Earn more.
Invest more.
Produce even more.
That is the cycle of demand-induced economic growth that Nigeria must build. And ultimately, none of these reforms will be sustainable without the cultural transformation that underpins them.
Economic transformation requires culture change. Without ethics, integrity, responsibility and a rejection of the “Oga Abeg” mentality, even the best economic policies will continue to produce disappointing results.
Also read: South African Businesses Struggle as Foreign Workers and Traders Leave
Nigeria therefore needs not merely a new economic policy.
Nigeria needs a new economic culture.
Opinion
Yahaya Bello: Funding the Structure, Not the Pocket Is the Winning Formula in Kogi
Published
3 days agoon
September 3, 2026
By Seun Oloketuyi,
Former Kogi State Governor Alhaji Yahaya Bello believes one of the biggest lessons from his political experience is that money alone does not win elections. For him, where that money is directed can make all the difference.
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Bello shares this perspective in Seun Oloketuyi’s forthcoming book, How to Win an Election in Nigeria, where he reflects on the political strategy behind his electoral successes in Kogi State.
According to him, campaigns should focus less on handing money directly to voters and more on building a strong political structure capable of mobilising support at the grassroots. “Fund your structure, not the voter’s pocket,” Bello said.
He argued that last-minute cash distribution should not be mistaken for a winning strategy, stressing that genuine political strength is built long before election day.
For Bello, the people and networks supporting a candidate are more important than simply having money to spend when voting is around the corner.
His experience in Kogi, he said, showed the importance of having a well-organised structure that could translate political support into actual votes.
Bello’s reflections offer a different perspective on the role of money in Nigerian elections, particularly the difference between spending to build political strength and spending simply to influence voters at the last minute.
Also read: Gbenga Daniel Urges Stronger Security at Freedom Online 7th Annual Lecture
More of his thoughts on electoral strategy, grassroots politics and the lessons from his years in Kogi politics are featured in Seun Oloketuyi’s How to Win an Election in Nigeria, scheduled for release on September 6.
Opinion
The Zamfara Masterminds: Loyalty, Structure and the Unstoppable Engine of the 2027 APC Campaign
Published
3 days agoon
September 3, 2026
By Adeola Agoro,
When in 2011 Abdulaziz Yari became the governorship candidate for the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in Zamfara State just after one term of Alhaji Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi, many political observers were not surprised.
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Although Mahmud Shinkafi, former deputy governor to His Excellency Senator Ahmed Sani Yerima was one of the few deputy governors to ever be solidly supported by their former bosses to succeed them in 2007, political realignments and party shifts altered the dynamic relationship after a short while in office.
So it was no surprise when Abdulaziz Yari, a deeply loyal protégé and key political strategist of Yerima got the party ticket and won the Zamfara governorship election in April 2011.
Over the years, both Yerima and Yari have worked together to make the state a formidable political stronghold and a reference point for administrative continuity.
Unlike most states carved out of older states, which often grapple with initial structural hurdles, Zamfara State, since its creation from the old Sokoto State in October 1996 and its democratic consolidation under Senator Yerima’s pioneer executive tenure starting in 1999, has continued to stand tall and maintain a distinct, independent presence on the political map of Nigeria.
The Political Strengths of Yerima and Yari
Senator Ahmed Sani Yerima (The Godfather & Stakeholder Mobilizer): A consummate strategist and the undisputed patriarch of grassroots mobilization in Northern Nigeria, Yerima’s ability to build bridges across political, traditional and religious institutions gives him an extraordinary capacity to unite diverse interest groups and command deep-rooted loyalty at ground zero.
Senator Abdulaziz Yari (The Master Tactical Administrator & DG): A seasoned political organizer who served as ANPP State Chairman, House of Representatives member, two-term Governor of Zamfara State (2011–2019) and Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), Yari brings fierce operational discipline, tactical executive coordination and national consensus-building skills to the table.
That both men who are undisputed political gladiators are now positioned at the core of the 2027 APC Presidential Campaign Council, with His Excellency Senator Abdulaziz Yari serving as Director-General and His Excellency Senator Ahmed Sani Yerima serving as Stakeholder Mobilizer, is a masterstroke in political planning, strategic alignment and electoral organization.
To understand the political weight behind the All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential Campaign Council, one must look at the unique narrative of Zamfara State – a political domain built on deep-rooted loyalty, strategic leadership and administrative continuity.
When the political landscape was redrawn during Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, Zamfara stood ready to chart its own course.
Under the executive leadership of His Excellency, Senator Ahmed Sani Yerima, the state established a distinct identity, proving that it could stand tall, independent and politically formidable on the national stage.
The Unbroken Bond
Long before stepping into executive leadership, Abdulaziz Yari had built a reputation as an exceptionally loyal party administrator and key strategist.
Throughout these roles, Yari viewed Yerima not just as a leader, but as a political mentor.
Unlike many political dynamics across the country where mentor-protégé relationships fray over time, the bond between Yerima and Yari has remained unbroken.
Their connection is built on deep-rooted mutual respect: Yari has consistently maintained absolute loyalty to his mentor, while Yerima has always respected Yari’s sharp administrative mind and organizational capacity.
A Strategic Masterstroke for 2027
Today, the inclusion of these two formidable leaders at the core of the APC Presidential Campaign Council brings that exact same spirit of loyalty, structure and strategic brilliance to the national stage.
With His Excellency, Senator Abdulaziz Yari bringing his tactical discipline, administrative efficiency and nationwide consensus-building skills to the campaign as Director-General and His Excellency, Senator Ahmed Sani Yerima deploying his legendary grassroots influence and bridge-building capabilities as Stakeholder Mobilizer, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election campaign possesses an unbeatable leadership engine.
While Yari coordinates the national operational machinery as Campaign DG, Yerima engages high-level stakeholders, political blocs, traditional institutions and grassroots groups across all 36 states.
Their combined track record, vast national networks and deep popularity bring an unbeatable structural shield to the presidential campaign, guaranteeing a sweeping, decisive victory for the APC.
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Their story stands as living proof that when loyalty, strength, administrative genius and mutual respect come together, political success naturally follows.
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