CBN projects stronger GDP growth, easing inflation, and rising reserves in 2026, signalling Nigeria economy stabilisation amid reforms and higher oil output

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected stronger economic growth and moderating inflation for 2026, signalling early signs of Nigeria economy stabilisation.

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In its latest macroeconomic outlook, the apex bank forecasts gross domestic product growth of 4.49 per cent, average inflation of 12.94 per cent, and external reserves reaching $51.04bn, supported by structural reforms, monetary policy measures, and higher oil production.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said the central bank had restored credibility, transparency, and policy alignment, adding that the economy had shifted from crisis containment to reform-based stabilisation.

Speaking at the 59th annual Bankers Dinner organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Cardoso said, “After nearly a decade in which real GDP growth averaged about two per cent, reforms have restored momentum and confidence in our broad macroeconomic environment. Our economy grew by 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, the strongest pace in four years, driven by improvements in telecommunications, financial services, and oil production.”

The CBN noted that disinflation is taking hold, with inflation moderating from a peak of 34.6 per cent in November 2024 to 14.50 per cent in November 2025.

The bank projects that this trend will continue in 2026, supported by improved FX liquidity, disciplined monetary management, and easing lending costs.

Analysts at Cowry Assets said, “With the reserves position strengthening, the CBN will have greater flexibility to sustain its interventionist approach in the FX market, helping maintain relative stability in the naira across both official and parallel markets.”

The apex bank also expects the current account surplus to rise to $18.81bn, bolstered by higher exports, remittances, and stronger petroleum sector performance, while portfolio inflows and external borrowings are projected to leave the financial account in a net borrowing position of $10.15bn.

The International Investment Position is forecast at $69.58bn in net borrowing terms.

Deputy Governor, Corporate Services, Ms Emem Usoro, highlighted that the challenge remains translating macroeconomic gains into tangible benefits for citizens.

“While progress has been made, more work is required to improve macroeconomic fundamentals and the standard of living for Nigerians,” she said, noting that reforms in taxation, energy pricing, public sector management, and infrastructure are critical to enhancing the impact of monetary stabilisation.

Experts at the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management emphasised that sustainable recovery requires consistent reforms and a focus on inclusive growth.

Dr Baba Musa said, “The real test lies not only in achieving stability but in ensuring that it translates into tangible socio-economic outcomes: decent jobs, rising incomes, improved productivity, and broader social welfare.”

Global institutions have acknowledged Nigeria’s resilience, with the World Bank forecasting consecutive GDP growth of 3.6 per cent in 2025, 3.7 per cent in 2026, and 3.8 per cent in 2027, while cautioning that external shocks, slowing global growth, and tariff tensions could affect the outlook.

The CBN maintains that evidence-based, data-driven monetary policy, combined with structural reforms, can create a more resilient Nigerian economy.

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However, the translation of stabilisation into real income growth, employment, and social welfare remains the ultimate measure of success.