Nigeria upstream oil resurgence driven by reforms sees output, rigs, and reserves climb as NUPRC secures \$16bn investments and boosts fiscal revenue and jobs

The Nigeria upstream oil resurgence is gathering momentum, with rising crude output, a record rig count, and over \$16 billion in fresh investments.

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At the centre of this transformation is the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), led by Engr. Gbenga Komolafe.

Production has now climbed to 1.51 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude, or 1.7mbpd when condensates are included, surpassing Nigeria’s 1.5mbpd OPEC quota.

Experts say this progress is the result of regulatory reforms, strong policy execution, and improved engagement with host communities.

According to the NUPRC, the flagship Project One Million Barrels Per Day (1MMBOPD), launched in October 2024, has helped reposition Nigeria’s oil output to align with the national budget benchmark of 2.06mbpd.

Crude oil revenues account for more than 90 per cent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange, making the sector vital to infrastructure and social development.

“We are seeing the benefits of a stronger regulatory environment,” said Prof. Olu Ajakaiye. “If we are able to maintain the trajectory, we may likely have more new rigs, which will further increase our capacity.”

The rig count has surged from just eight in 2022 to 46 as of July 2025. Nigeria’s crude oil and gas reserves have also hit historic highs: 37.28 billion barrels of crude and 210.54 trillion cubic feet of gas.

To ensure transparency, the Commission initiated a Metering Audit and introduced the Advance Cargo Declaration system.

It also enabled remittances of N97bn and \$149m into Host Community Development Trust (HCDT) accounts from the statutory three per cent of operators’ expenses.

Abdulmajeed Amussah of DEER Nigeria praised the Commission’s crackdown on oil theft and vandalism, stating: “Production growth isn’t just about hitting numbers, it reflects stability, trust, and effective policy execution.”

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The Nigeria upstream oil resurgence is now seen as a signal of economic revival, with far-reaching impacts on inflation, revenue sharing, and investor confidence.