Why the Opposition May Lose Again – Not Because President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Is Unbeatable, but Because His Opponents Are Unprepared

 

By Nosa Osaikhuiwu,

There is a dangerous political delusion taking hold in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 presidential election: the belief that because millions of Nigerians are unhappy with the government, the opposition will automatically defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Also read: Babafemi Ojudu: Rising Cost of Elections Shutting Capable Nigerians Out of Politics

That assumption could prove to be one of the opposition’s biggest mistakes. There is another narrative that has become almost unquestionable in some political circles: that the opposition actually won the 2023 presidential election and that its victory was stolen.

I do not subscribe to that narrative, because the conclusions are baseless without empirical data, unsubstantiated and unfounded.

Let me state my position clearly. I am not an APC supporter, nor am I a supporter of any political party in Nigeria. My position is based on political realities and my commitment to good governance, culture change, ethical transformation and a better Nigeria.

I believe Nigerians must learn to distinguish between what we wish had happened and what actually happened. Because as the saying goes “if wishes were horses baggers will ride all day”.

THE 2023 ELECTION: POLITICAL MATHEMATICS MATTERED

The 2023 presidential election was fundamentally different from the elections that preceded it because Nigeria’s traditional two-party political contest was disrupted by the emergence of Peter Obi and the Labor Party as a major electoral force.

Before Peter Obi left the PDP, the presidential contest was largely expected to be between the PDP and APC. Then the equation changed.

Peter Obi left the PDP and joined the Labor Party. His candidacy captured the imagination of millions of Nigerians, particularly young people and voters who wanted a fundamental change in the political system.

But there was an important consequence that many people appear unwilling to acknowledge: The opposition vote was divided. 

A substantial portion of the electorate that might otherwise have supported the PDP moved toward Labor. This move was a game changer for the political and electoral landscape.

It transformed what could have been essentially a two-way contest into a three-way presidential election. This was not a minor development. It changed the mathematical calculus of the election.

The APC entered the election as the incumbent governing party, with the enormous political advantages that come with incumbency and an established national political structure.

The PDP had its own extensive national structure, but it was weakened by internal divisions and the emergence of the Labor Party.

The Labor Party, meanwhile, generated enormous enthusiasm but did not possess the national political structure of either the APC or PDP.

The electoral outcome was predictable from a political-mathematical standpoint. The opposition was divided. The APC was sufficiently consolidated. Consequently, the APC won.

That conclusion does not require anyone to be an APC supporter. It requires only an honest examination of the political circumstances surrounding the election.

WAS THE 2023 ELECTION PERFECT?

An unbiased and responsible review of the 2023 presidential elections will acknowledge that it was not perfect. Frankly, there are no perfect elections anywhere in the world.

There were controversies, alleged irregularities and unverified claims of record manipulation during the election.

But we must distinguish between two different arguments. The first is that the election contained irregularities. The second is that those irregularities were sufficient to change the final outcome.

The first proposition is not particularly controversial. The second requires credible evidence to substantiate the claims made.

An election does not become automatically invalid simply because irregularities occurred. Elections around the world experience administrative failures, logistical problems, disputes, allegations of malpractice and other imperfections.

The relevant question is whether those problems were sufficient to change the outcome. That is where political argument must give way to evidence.

The more important lesson from 2023, therefore, is not that somebody “stole” an election that was already won.

The more important lesson is that a divided opposition made it easier for the incumbent party to win. And that lesson is extremely relevant to 2027.

TINUBU’S BIGGEST ADVANTAGE MAY BE THE OPPOSITION

Let us be brutally honest. President Tinubu’s administration has significant economic and political challenges. Inflation, rising cost of living, unemployment, insecurity, hardship and declining purchasing power have created genuine pain for millions of Nigerians.

The government’s economic reforms may have been motivated by legitimate concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria’s economy.

But good intentions do not exempt a government from performance evaluation. Government must ultimately be judged by results.

If Nigerians were voting exclusively on economic performance, the APC would have plenty to worry about.

But elections are not mathematics based solely on economic indicators. They are political contests. And politics is about organization, structure, messaging, coalition-building, voter mobilization and the ability to convert public sentiment into votes. This is where the opposition is making a potentially catastrophic mistake.

The opposition appears to believe that dissatisfaction with Tinubu is equivalent to support for the opposition.

It is not. Millions of Nigerians can be unhappy with the APC and still refuse to vote for an opposition party. Millions can complain about the economy and still have no confidence in the alternative. Millions can criticize Tinubu and still ask:

“Who exactly are you bringing to replace him?”

That is the question the opposition has yet to answer convincingly.

SOCIAL MEDIA IS NOT THE BALLOT BOX

One of the greatest political illusions of modern Nigeria is the belief that social-media popularity represents electoral strength. It does not. A politician can dominate Facebook, X, Tik-Tok or YouTube and still lose an election. Why? Because elections are not won by likes, reposts, hashtags, viral videos, but are won by voters going to the polls and making choices known.

They are won by organizing voters geographically from ward level, communities to their polling units by having a ground game that actively engages local leaders, traditional institutions, religious institutions, professional associations, youth organizations and community networks to ensure they deliver their votes. The party that understands this reality will have an enormous advantage.

The opposition cannot spend the next year fighting political battles on the internet while the APC builds and maintains political structures across the country.

The internet can amplify a political movement. It cannot substitute for a political organization.

 

THREE THINGS THE OPPOSITION MUST DO

If the opposition genuinely wants to defeat the APC in 2027, it must act now.

1. CONSOLIDATE

The opposition parties need to stop pretending that each one can independently defeat the APC. PDP, Labor, ADC and other opposition forces must seriously consider forming a genuine political coalition or adopting a common platform.

The objective cannot simply be “anything but Tinubu.”

That is not enough. Nigeria needs an alternative government, not merely an anti-Tinubu movement.

The coalition must develop a credible economic, security, educational, industrial and governance agenda. It must tell Nigerians exactly what it intends to do differently.

 

2. PRESENT ONE CANDIDATE

This may be the most important issue of all. The opposition cannot repeat 2023. If multiple opposition candidates enter the presidential race and divide the anti-APC vote again, they may once again hand the election to the incumbent.

One presidential candidate.

One national platform.

One coherent message.

One campaign structure.

One political strategy.

That is the only realistic pathway toward transforming widespread dissatisfaction into an electoral majority.

The process of choosing that candidate must not become another ethnic or regional contest. Nigeria needs a candidate who can build a national coalition.

A candidate who can win in the North.

A candidate who can win in the South.

A candidate who can appeal to Christians and Muslims.

A candidate who can appeal to young and old.

A candidate who can convince Nigerians that the alternative government will be competent, ethical and capable.

 

3. TAKE THE CAMPAIGN TO THE STREETS

The opposition must get off the internet.

Go to the communities.

Go to the wards.

Go to the villages.

Go to the markets.

Go to the universities.

Go to the workplaces.

Talk to farmers.

Talk to traders.

Talk to artisans.

Talk to young people.

Talk to women.

Talk to professionals.

Talk to people who have never posted a political message on social media.

Most importantly, listen to them. A political party cannot build a national movement by speaking only to people who already agree with it. It must persuade people who are undecided. That is how elections are won.

 

STOP BLAMING THE REFEREE

There is a deeper cultural problem that Nigeria must confront.

We have developed an extraordinary culture of avoiding responsibility. A student fails an examination and blames the teacher.

A football team loses and blames the referee.

A driver causes an accident and blames the devil.

A politician loses an election and immediately claims that the election was stolen.

Sometimes those accusations are justified.

But not always.

Sometimes we simply failed.

Sometimes we were not prepared.

Sometimes our opponent was better organized.

Sometimes our strategy was poor.

Sometimes our candidate was not popular enough.

Sometimes we did not have enough votes.

There is nothing undignified about acknowledging defeat.

 

In fact, the ability to honestly analyze failure is one of the foundations of ethical leadership.

 

Nigeria cannot build a culture of accountability while politicians refuse to accept responsibility for their own strategic failures.

If the opposition loses in 2027, it should not automatically blame INEC, the APC, the judiciary, technology, vote buying or electoral manipulation.

It should first ask:

Did we do everything necessary to win?

Did we have the structure?

Did we mobilize the voters?

Did we have one candidate?

Did we have a credible message?

Did we build a national coalition?

Did we protect our votes?

Did we understand the political terrain?

Did we actually convince undecided voters?

If the answer to these questions is no, then perhaps the problem was not simply the election.

Perhaps the problem was the opposition.

 

2027 IS NOT YET A FOREGONE CONCLUSION

Let me be clear: I am not predicting that President Tinubu will certainly win the 2027 election.

No responsible political analyst should make that claim at this stage.

Elections can change dramatically.

Political alliances can collapse.

New movements can emerge.

Economic conditions can change.

A powerful opposition coalition can alter the entire political equation.

But based on the political structure that exists today, the APC has a significant advantage.

And if the opposition continues to operate as it did in 2023, fragmented, internally divided and without a single national candidate, it could lose again.

Not necessarily because Tinubu’s government has performed exceptionally well. Not necessarily because Nigerians are satisfied.

But because the alternative has failed to organize itself sufficiently to take power. That is the uncomfortable truth many opposition politicians and the supporters do not want to hear.

 

THE FALSE PROPHETS ARE COMING

As 2027 approaches, Nigerians should expect a flood of political predictions. Some will tell you that the opposition has already won. Some will tell you that a particular candidate is “unstoppable.”

Those in the faith arena proclaim from the roof top that God has revealed the winner to them and that a candidate in the opposition rank or the incumbent president is the one chosen by God.

Others will interpret social-media trends as evidence of an inevitable electoral victory.

Some will publish elaborate electoral maps based on nothing more than wishful thinking. Many will blame every political setback on conspiracy.

Nigerians must be careful.

Political prophecy is not political strategy.

A viral video is not an election.

A poll is not an election.

A political rally is not an election.

A crowd is not an election.

An angry population is not automatically an opposition electorate.

The only thing that ultimately matters is whether a political organization can convert public sentiment into votes.

NIGERIA NEEDS A COMPETENT OPPOSITION

I want the opposition to compete, not because I support any particular political party, but because democracy requires a credible alternative.

A healthy democracy needs a government that knows it can be challenged.

It needs an opposition that can scrutinize government policies.

It needs political parties that can present alternative economic policies.

It needs leaders who can accept responsibility.

It needs citizens who can distinguish facts from political propaganda.

Most importantly, Nigeria needs a political culture in which elections are contests of ideas, competence and character rather than ethnic calculations, religious mobilization and personality cults.

The opposition still has time.

But it must wake up.

Stop fighting one another.

Stop living on social media.

Stop waiting for the APC to collapse.

Stop assuming economic hardship automatically translates into opposition votes.

Stop telling Nigerians that you already won an election you did not win.

Stop blaming everyone else.

Organize. Consolidate. Choose one candidate. Build a national coalition. Develop a credible alternative agenda. Go to the grassroots. Mobilize voters. Protect the votes.

Then compete.

If the opposition does that and still loses, it will at least have earned the right to demand a serious examination of the electoral process.

But if it refuses to do the work and loses again, Nigerians should not be surprised.

Also read: Babafemi Ojudu: Rising Cost of Elections Shutting Capable Nigerians Out of Politics

The APC may win, not because it is unbeatable, but because its opponents were unwilling or unable to become a credible alternative. That would be the greatest tragedy of all. Because Nigeria does not merely need a new government.

Nigeria needs a better political culture.

And that culture change must begin with accepting one simple principle:

If you want to win, prepare to win.

Anything less is political delusion.

 

Former Senator Babafemi Ojudu has raised concerns about the rising cost of running for political office in Nigeria, saying the financial demands of elections are increasingly shutting out capable candidates who lack access to wealthy political patrons.

Also read: Sijibomi Ogundele: From Luxury Real Estate Disruption to a Hard-Won Road to Redemption

Ojudu made the remarks in Seun Oloketuyi’s forthcoming book, How to Win an Election in Nigeria, which is set to be released on September 6.

Ojudu said the situation has created a system where money and connections can matter more than a candidate’s popularity, competence or record.

He noted that campaign spending was once largely associated with the practical business of running an election, including mobilising supporters, printing campaign materials, placing adverts and deploying polling agents. But according to him, that has changed considerably.

“Today, capital is heavily absorbed by elite-level transactional politics,” Ojudu said.

He argued that candidates without access to powerful political networks or godfathers can find themselves pushed aside, even when they have the support of the people.

“Without access to elite financing networks or powerful patrons, even the most capable, ethical, and publicly embraced aspirants find themselves locked out of the race,” he said.

Ojudu’s concern is that the situation is beginning to affect the quality of candidates available to voters.

When the ability to raise huge sums becomes a major requirement for securing a ticket and mounting a competitive campaign, many people with the capacity to serve may never get the opportunity to contest.

“When money and institutional backing outweigh appeal, public-interest candidates without godfather leverage are sadly reduced to spectators,” he said.

He believes the problem cannot be solved simply by asking politicians to spend less. For him, stronger enforcement of campaign finance rules and wider electoral reforms are needed to address the growing financial pressure around elections.

“Until comprehensive campaign finance enforcement and structural electoral reforms are instituted, the cost of mounting a credible election will continue to not favour popular candidates,” Ojudu said.

His comments raise a difficult question about Nigeria’s democracy: how many potentially good candidates are being kept out of politics simply because they cannot afford the price of entry?

Also read: Sijibomi Ogundele: From Luxury Real Estate Disruption to a Hard-Won Road to Redemption

That is one of the issues Ojudu examines in his reflections on Nigeria’s changing political landscape.

By Adebayo Adeoye,

Take a cursory look at the entrepreneurial journey of Dr. Sijibomi Ogundele, Chairman of Sujimoto Group, and one thing becomes apparent: his story has been defined by an uncommon appetite for ambition, reinvention and the pursuit of possibilities.

Also read: RSSOSA National President, Aare Adetola Emmanuelking, Celebrates Damola Aiyeola at 60, Commends His Legacy of Service

For Ogundele, the journey to prominence in Nigeria’s luxury real estate space did not happen by accident. It was fuelled by a desire to build enduring value and leave an imprint on an industry he believed had enormous untapped potential.

When he ventured into luxury real estate, the proposition was, at the time, regarded by some as audacious.

Yet, rather than be constrained by conventional thinking, Ogundele pursued his vision with characteristic determination.

The eventual emergence of Sujimoto Construction marked the beginning of an enterprise that would seek to redefine perceptions of luxury property development in Nigeria.

Over the years, Sujimoto has become one of the more recognisable names in Nigeria’s high-end real estate market, with developments designed to push the boundaries of architecture, luxury and lifestyle.

Ogundele’s approach has been largely built around a simple philosophy: identify opportunities where others see obstacles and pursue them with conviction.

It is a philosophy that has served him well, but one that has also been tested in recent years.

Running a business in Nigeria has never been for the faint-hearted.

For operators in capital-intensive sectors such as real estate, the combination of inflation, currency volatility, escalating construction costs, constrained purchasing power and softer demand can quickly transform an ambitious expansion strategy into a significant financial challenge.

Sujimoto was not insulated from these realities.

According to Ogundele, the company endured an exceptionally difficult period during which it went almost three years without selling a single unit, even as it continued to carry substantial operational commitments.

He disclosed that monthly overheads were about N126 million, while broader operational obligations exceeded N500 million.

To sustain its projects, retain its workforce and meet commitments to suppliers, contractors and clients, the company relied on financing from commercial banks, private lenders, friends and family.

Some of the facilities, he said, eventually carried effective costs of as much as 100 per cent, placing additional pressure on the company’s liquidity.

For an entrepreneur whose public image has long been associated with confidence, flamboyance and big-ticket developments, it was undoubtedly a sobering chapter.

Yet, Ogundele’s response to the crisis appears to have been less about retreat and more about restructuring.

After what he described as 14 months of intense financial pressure, the Sujimoto chairman disclosed that the company had repaid more than N40 billion owed to banks and private lenders.

He has also pledged that all legitimate outstanding obligations will be cleared by January 1, 2027.

The claims represent a significant development in a story that, until recently, was defined largely by the pressures confronting the company.

For Ogundele, however, the repayment journey is not merely about settling financial obligations.

It is also about restoring confidence, protecting relationships and demonstrating that an enterprise can confront a difficult season without necessarily abandoning its long-term vision.

The completion and handover of the Lucrezia development, he has said, remains an important illustration of that commitment.

At a time when the company’s finances were under pressure, delivering on a major development was both a commercial responsibility and a test of credibility.

Perhaps the more revealing part of Ogundele’s experience is the lesson he says he has taken from it.

The entrepreneur now appears more conscious of the risks inherent in aggressive expansion funded largely by debt.

The next phase of Sujimoto’s growth, according to him, will place greater emphasis on liquidity management, sustainable capital structures and strategic partnerships.

That thinking is expected to influence the financing architecture of the proposed 69-storey Leonardo luxury residential development, one of the company’s most ambitious projects.

The experience has also offered a broader lesson about entrepreneurship in an unpredictable market. Vision, after all, is only one component of building a sustainable business.

Capital discipline, risk management, resilience and the ability to adapt when circumstances change are equally important.

Ogundele’s story therefore transcends the glamour often associated with luxury real estate.

Behind the spectacular buildings, ambitious concepts and carefully curated lifestyle is the less glamorous reality of managing payrolls, servicing debt, meeting construction obligations, satisfying clients and navigating a volatile economy.

It is this less visible side of the story that makes his recent experience particularly instructive.

The businessman who once attracted attention for challenging the conventions of Nigeria’s luxury property market has now found himself confronting another kind of challenge: proving that the same determination that built the brand can also help rebuild its financial foundations.

For Ogundele, the road ahead may therefore be less about proving that he can dream big and more about demonstrating that big dreams can be supported by resilient and sustainable financial structures.

His journey is a reminder that entrepreneurial success is rarely a straight line. There are seasons of expansion, moments of triumph and, sometimes, periods when survival itself becomes the greatest test of leadership.

Ogundele has tasted all three.

And as Sujimoto enters what its chairman hopes will be a new chapter, the story is no longer simply about the man who sought to redefine luxury real estate.

Also read: RSSOSA National President, Aare Adetola Emmanuelking, Celebrates Damola Aiyeola at 60, Commends His Legacy of Service

It is increasingly about an entrepreneur learning, through experience, that enduring success is measured not only by the heights one reaches, but also by the strength and discipline with which one navigates the descent, and finds the courage to rise again.