Opinion
Three Years of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu: Reform, Progress and Work in Progress
Tinubu economic reform gains: Nigeria records progress in fiscal, infrastructure and energy reforms, with inflation and insecurity still challenging
Reform, Renewal and the Repositioning of Nigeria (2023–2026)
Also read: Chief Abiola Ogundokun Visits President-Elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu
INTRODUCTION
On May 29, 2023, Nigerians entrusted the leadership of the nation to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at one of the most difficult periods in Nigeria’s modern economic history.
The country faced a crippling fuel subsidy regime, mounting debt obligations, a fragmented foreign exchange market, weak investor confidence, insecurity, deteriorating infrastructure, declining industrial productivity, inflationary pressure, and severe strain on public finances.
The administration inherited an economy many analysts described as structurally weak and fiscally distressed.
Foreign exchange obligations had accumulated into billions of dollars. Fuel subsidy payments had become unsustainable. NNPCL remittances into the Federation Account had weakened significantly. States struggled financially. Local governments had little developmental impact at the grassroots. Several sectors of the economy were surviving largely through borrowing and unsustainable government intervention.
Under previous administrations, many states struggled repeatedly to pay salaries. During the Jonathan administration, over twenty-seven states reportedly faced severe salary payment challenges. Under former President Muhammadu Buhari, bailout interventions became necessary for several states, while Ways and Means financing expanded significantly as government increasingly relied on Central Bank financing to sustain the economy.
At one point, debt servicing reportedly consumed almost all federal revenues, while the country borrowed heavily to sustain fuel subsidies and recurrent obligations.
Nigeria was also operating a multiple exchange-rate system widely criticised as vulnerable to corruption, arbitrage, leakages, and unfair access to foreign exchange.
Crude oil production faced serious challenges, oil theft expanded, pipelines deteriorated, and even future crude production was reportedly committed in advance under forward-sale arrangements.
From his very first day in office, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signalled that difficult decisions would be required to stop what many viewed as national economic bleeding.
His declaration that “fuel subsidy is gone” immediately defined the tone of an administration prepared to undertake painful but structural reforms rather than continue unsustainable economic practices.
Many observers believe the President faced two choices: either continue the old system and join the cycle of unsustainable spending, or confront the structural distortions directly.
The administration chose the more difficult path.
Three years later, Nigeria still faces major economic and security pressures, but many Nigerians, investors, development institutions, and private sector stakeholders believe the country is undergoing one of the boldest economic and institutional reform programmes since the return to democracy in 1999.
This assessment examines the administration under three broad categories:
THE BEST
Areas where reforms have produced the strongest visible structural impact.
BETTER
Areas showing major progress and positive institutional direction.
GOOD / WORK IN PROGRESS
Areas where reforms are ongoing but where Nigerians still expect deeper results and broader national impact.
THE BEST
1. Fiscal Reforms & Financial Restructuring
One of the biggest structural reforms under the administration has been the removal of fuel subsidies and the strengthening of public revenues.
The reforms significantly increased allocations to states and local governments through FAAC.
In May 2023, the final FAAC allocation under the Buhari administration was approximately ₦600 billion.
By June 2023, the first full month under President Tinubu, approximately ₦1.9 trillion reportedly entered the Federation Account, with about ₦1.2 trillion shared among the three tiers of government while substantial reserves were retained.
Average Monthly Gross FAAC Allocation to States
2023 — ₦379 billionQ1 2026 — ₦816.41 billionIncrease — +115.4%
Average allocations to the 774 local governments reportedly now exceed ₦400–₦500 billion monthly in several periods.
As a result:
States now execute larger infrastructure projects
Salary payments improved significantly
Local projects increased
Social intervention programmes expanded
Dependence on salary bailout funds reduced substantially
Today, many states are so financially stronger that several are competing to:
Build airports
Establish state airlines
Expand transportation systems
Develop industrial corridors
Upgrade healthcare and education infrastructure
Nigeria is gradually attempting to build its economy from the bottom up.
However, stronger transparency and accountability are still required.
2. Electricity Autonomy & Energy Reforms
One of the most historic constitutional reforms under the administration has been electricity autonomy for states.
Before President Tinubu, states could not independently generate, license, regulate, and fully manage electricity markets within their territories.
Today, every state now possesses greater constitutional authority to:
License electricity operators
Generate power
Regulate electricity markets
Build state electricity systems
As a result, many states are now competing among themselves to become the first to achieve stable 24-hour electricity supply.
This reform fundamentally changed electricity from being almost exclusively controlled at the federal level to becoming a shared national development responsibility.
The administration also intensified:
Rural electrification
Renewable energy projects
Transmission improvements
Metering reforms
Independent power investments
The CNG initiative also emerged as a major transportation and energy reform designed to reduce fuel costs and improve affordability.
Private sector participation expanded significantly through:
Dangote Group
BUA investments
Independent energy investors
Aliko Dangote also announced long-term electricity ambitions capable of contributing up to 20,000MW over time.
3. Oil, Gas & Refining Transformation
The oil and gas sector witnessed major restructuring.
Nigeria gradually moved away from heavy dependence on imported refined petroleum products toward becoming an emerging exporter through:
Dangote Refinery
Refinery rehabilitation
Increased local refining capacity
One of the most strategic interventions was allowing local crude transactions in naira for domestic refining support.
This policy helped reduce pressure on foreign exchange demand while supporting local refining operations.
Pipeline restoration improved significantly.
Oil theft reportedly reduced sharply through:
Enhanced surveillance
Metering reforms
Security coordination
Crude Oil Production
2023 — 1.19 million bpd2026 — 1.49 million bpdIncrease — +25%
NNPCL reforms under Mr. Bayo Ojulari introduced stronger professionalism and operational restructuring.
4. Infrastructure Revolution & Railway Expansion
The administration embarked on some of the largest infrastructure projects in modern Nigerian history.
Signature Projects
Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway
Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway
Railway modernisation projects
Federal highways and bridges
Both mega highways include future rail infrastructure integration.
Expected Benefits
Tourism growth
Coastal industrialisation
Agricultural logistics
Interstate commerce
Housing expansion
Marine economy growth
Regional integration
Between 16 and 18 states are expected to benefit directly from the Sokoto-Badagry corridor.
The administration also granted railway autonomy to states.
Before these reforms, rail transportation remained largely under exclusive federal control.
Today, states can:
Develop rail systems
Partner with investors
Expand transportation infrastructure
Lagos State is already taking major advantage of this reform through rail expansion.
Nigeria’s long-term railway master plan is expected to significantly reduce:
Transportation costs
Human movement costs
Logistics expenses
Cargo movement challenges
5. Education Revolution & Human Capital Development
One of the administration’s most transformative interventions has been in education.
Key Programmes
NELFUND
3MTT
TVET
DL4ALL
The student loan programme is increasingly viewed as a major game changer.
Many Nigerians now believe that any child can begin and complete tertiary education regardless of financial background.
JAMB applications reportedly rose significantly partly due to expanded access to educational financing.
Students in several programmes also receive monthly support stipends.
In addition:
Federal technical and vocational schools became tuition-free
Students receive upkeep support
Technical education expanded nationwide
Every state now has expanded technical and vocational opportunities through federal government interventions
The administration’s broader objective appears aimed at moving Nigeria from a purely consumption-driven economy toward industrialisation and skills-based production.
Another major achievement is industrial peace within tertiary education.
Unlike previous years marked by prolonged ASUU strikes, students who entered universities in 2023 are progressing toward graduation without nationwide disruptions.
6. Local Government Autonomy & Regional Development
One of the most historic governance reforms under the administration was direct allocation to local governments.
This reform has the potential to:
Deepen grassroots governance
Improve accountability
Expand rural infrastructure
Strengthen the micro economy
The six regional development commissions also represent deeper decentralisation of development planning.
Each geopolitical region now possesses stronger institutional platforms to coordinate:
Regional infrastructure
Economic planning
Development priorities
Strategic investments
7. Banking, Capital Market & Financial Stability
The administration introduced major banking recapitalisation reforms through the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The reforms strengthened:
Bank balance sheets
Investor confidence
Industrial financing capacity
Long-term lending potential
Nigerian Stock Market Growth
May 2023 — 52,751.432026 — 249,738.84Growth — +373%
Nigeria’s stock market became one of the strongest-performing markets globally during the period.
Foreign Reserves
2023 — Approximately $3–4 billion under severe pressure levels2026 — Approximately $48–49 billion
The administration also reportedly:
Cleared major FX backlogs
Stabilised the CBN
Reduced direct monetary financing
Cleared IMF obligations
Nigerians can increasingly use naira bank cards internationally in selected countries without relying heavily on cash dollars or pounds.
BETTER
8. Telecommunications & Digital Economy
The digital economy received major policy attention.
Major Achievements
National fibre optic backbone expansion
Rural telecom infrastructure growth
Data hosting improvements
Broadband expansion
Increased digital connectivity
Nigeria is gradually positioning itself as a major digital economy hub in Africa.
9. Aviation & Ease of Doing Business
Before 2023, several foreign airlines threatened to reduce operations due to trapped funds.
The administration cleared major obligations and restored confidence.
Aviation Improvements
More direct international flights
Aircraft leasing partnerships
Aviation maintenance investments
Airport automation reforms
Nigeria’s aviation industry is now among the fastest-growing aviation markets globally.
Ease of Doing Business Reforms
Visa-on-arrival systems
Contactless passport processing
Airport automation
Cross-border banking expansion
10. Economic Diversification
Nigeria is gradually moving away from dependence on a mono-product oil economy.
Growth sectors increasingly include:
Agriculture
Mining
Telecommunications
Manufacturing
Housing
Technology
Marine economy
Aviation
Logistics
Mining reforms attracted increasing international attention.
The administration maintains that reforms are opening doors for private enterprise to help drive Nigeria toward a one-trillion-dollar economy.
Over two million Nigerians are reportedly working directly or indirectly across federal, state, and local government infrastructure and development projects nationwide.
GOOD / WORK IN PROGRESS
11. Inflation & Cost of Living
Despite reforms, inflation and purchasing power remain major concerns.
Inflation Rate
2023 — 20.06%2026 — 15.69%
Though inflation moderation is positive, many Nigerians still face:
High food prices
Transportation costs
Energy costs
Reduced purchasing power
However, food inflation has moderated compared to peak crisis periods.
The reforms remain painful for many households.
Citizens must also recognise that stable electricity, telecommunications, and modern infrastructure require realistic pricing and sustainable investment.
12. Security Challenges
Security investments increased substantially through:
Military hardware
Surveillance systems
Intelligence coordination
Forest guards recruitment
However:
Banditry
Kidnapping
Terrorism
Organised crime
remain major national concerns.
One of the most significant security improvements recorded during the period occurred in Nigeria’s South-East region.
When President Tinubu assumed office in 2023, many parts of the region were heavily affected by insecurity, armed separatist violence, illegal militia activities, and the enforcement of sit-at-home orders every Monday.
In several areas, criminal elements and armed groups had created severe fear within communities, disrupted businesses, paralysed economic activities, and challenged state authority.
However, through increased cooperation between the Federal Government, security agencies, and South-East governors, major security operations were intensified across the region.
Several militia camps were dismantled, many suspects were arrested and prosecuted, while enforcement of illegal sit-at-home orders weakened significantly.
State governments in the region also took firmer positions by insisting that:
Markets must open
Citizens must return to work
Economic activities must continue normally
As a result, the 2025 festive season in many South-East states was widely regarded by residents and travellers as one of the safest and most economically active periods in recent years.
Many Nigerians travelled across the region by road during the Christmas and New Year celebrations with significantly improved confidence compared to previous years.
Important National Reflection
Insecurity must never be tribalised, sectionalised, politicised, or trivialised.
Nigeria’s enemies are common enemies.
Those who benefited from:
Subsidy scams
Oil theft
Foreign exchange arbitrage
Economic sabotage
Corruption networks
may naturally resist reforms threatening entrenched interests.
The administration itself survived intense political and economic pressures during the reform process.
Many Nigerians believe there is still coordinated resistance against ongoing reforms.
Yet there remains belief that the country can overcome these challenges.
RECOMMENDATIONS
To strengthen ongoing reforms and deepen national impact, the following recommendations deserve serious consideration:
1. Strengthen Local Government Transparency
Quarterly financial reports should be mandatory for all local governments
Mid-year and annual performance reports should be publicly accessible
Quarterly town hall meetings should become compulsory
Citizens should have direct access to budgets and procurement details
Monitoring and accountability systems should be strengthened
2. Expand Informal Sector Enumeration
Claims that Nigeria has over 140 million unemployed people may not fully capture the realities of Nigeria’s large informal economy.
Millions of Nigerians operate daily within informal and self-employed sectors without formal CAC registration.
These include:
Vulcanisers
Tailors
Mechanics
Food vendors
Carpenters
Electricians
Barbers
Hairdressers
Plumbers
Fishermen
Meat and fish sellers
Market traders
Kiosk operators
Phone accessory sellers
Business centre operators
Informal transport workers
Security guards in estates and private homes
Gatemen
Street and traffic vendors
Many of these citizens earn daily income and support families despite not appearing within formal employment databases.
Therefore:
Every local government should establish local economic and statistical enumeration units
Informal businesses should be properly documented
Local economic data should be updated regularly
Grassroots business activities should be integrated into national economic planning
A stronger grassroots statistical framework will improve:
Economic planning
Tax administration
SME support
Credit access
Skills development
Social intervention targeting
3. Security & Community Intelligence
While awaiting constitutional approval for state policing:
Governors should strengthen Ministries of Security
Competent Security Commissioners should be appointed
Community intelligence systems should expand
Citizens must cooperate more closely with security agencies
4. Grassroots Economic Inclusion
Local contracts should primarily benefit qualified indigenous residents of local governments.
The objective should be to ensure that:
More money circulates within communities
Local businesses grow
Youth employment expands
Micro economies become stronger
The people must directly see and feel development.
FINALLY
Three years into office, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration presents a record defined by:
Fiscal restructuring
Banking reforms
Infrastructure expansion
Energy reforms
Educational interventions
Housing expansion
Agricultural modernisation
Technology development
Capital market growth
Telecommunications expansion
Security reforms
The administration maintains that these reforms are opening doors for private enterprise to thrive while positioning Nigeria toward long-term economic transformation.
Nigeria is not yet where it desires to be.
But many Nigerians believe the country is far from where it started the journey in 2023.
There is growing belief that there is now visible light at the end of the tunnel.
Ultimately, history will judge the Tinubu years not merely by reforms announced or projects initiated, but by whether these reforms eventually translate into:
Better living standards
Lower poverty levels
Stronger institutions
Greater national unity
Sustainable prosperity
Increased employment
Social stability
The journey remains difficult, but the nation must continue navigating carefully, patiently, and collectively toward stability and prosperity.
Also read: Tinubu’s Aide Sunday Dare to Deliver TheGazelleNews’ Anniversary Lecture
Let us keep hope alive and navigate the rivers safely.
Bola Bolawole questions Nigeria’s democratic future, citing poverty, illiteracy, corruption and political rivalry as obstacles to credible elections
The All-Nigeria Rotary Peace Summit will examine how good governance, justice and equity can help Nigeria build lasting peace
The above title is a combination of the theme of the 5th convocation ceremony of Trinity University, Yaba, Lagos, and the title of its convocation lecture delivered by Professor Bode Ayorinde. The Vice-Chancellor, Professor Clement Olusegun O. Kolawole, had kicked off the convocation activities on Monday, 12 October 2026, with a press conference, followed by other week-long activities which included the presentation of its Nursing Science and Medical Laboratory Science graduates for induction into the Nursing and Midwifery Council of Nigeria and the Medical Laboratory Science Council of Nigeria respectively.
From a private university that started with just nine pioneering students in 2019, Trinity University graduated a total of 323 students across various disciplines penultimate week, with 79 of them achieving First Class honours, two of whom got a perfect 5.0 Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA).
I wish every graduating student from Nigerian universities — private as well as public — had the opportunity to listen to Ayorinde’s convocation lecture titled “Navigating the Troubled World: Understanding the World, Confronting Its Troubles, and Equipping the Next Generation for Survival and Significance”, which was delivered on Thursday, 15 October 2026. A one-time member of the House of Representatives, Ayorinde is the Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of Council of Achievers University, Owo, Ondo State.
He started by saying he chose the word “navigating” deliberately because “a navigator does not simply react to events but studies the terrain, knows the direction of travel, spots the dangers, chooses a route, adjusts as conditions change, and keeps the destination in view.” According to him, the navigator must learn to “navigate a world of extraordinary opportunities and formidable challenges. It is a world of great scientific achievements and of persistent human suffering. Information is abundant, yet truth and wisdom are scarce. Communication has become instant but human beings have not necessarily become more understanding.”
To successfully make this journey, Ayorinde counselled that we must learn not to lose faith, integrity and sense of purpose. “The world is not merely a troubled place to be endured. It is a complex human environment to be understood, navigated and, where possible, transformed. Its troubles come from human choices, failing institutions, economic pressure, technological disruption, damage to the environment and spiritual disorientation.
They differ from country to country, from one person to another, and from one state to the next. Here in Nigeria, we face serious problems of security and welfare, and the opportunities for survival, let alone prosperity, are limited.” Hearing these, I sighed!
Our World Is Complex
Ayorinde then admonished that as graduates of a Christian university, their task is threefold. “First, to understand the world as it is. Second, to develop the competence and character to survive in it. Third, to use your education and faith to make it better.” He therefore built his lecture around three questions: What is the world we live in made of? What has made it troubled? How can we navigate this world and still shine?
Ayorinde divided the world into the physical and natural world (made up of land, water, air, forests, minerals, oceans, plants, animals, and the ecosystems which sustain life and which we depend on for food, shelter, energy, medicine, transport and industry); the human world or “the world of people”, as he called it; the political and institutional world (made up of governments, constitutions, courts, legislatures, regulatory authorities, international and business organisations — all of which are the bodies through which society exercises authority); and the economic and financial world (responsible for the production of goods and services, trade, employment and investment, together with banking, insurance, taxation, public finance and the distribution of resources — which all of us take part in, whether as workers, entrepreneurs or consumers).
He then charged the graduates that “understanding the economic world is essential. A degree gives you academic knowledge but financial literacy teaches you how to earn, save and invest.”
The other “worlds” that he listed include the scientific and technological world, and the question for the fresh graduates, he said, “is not whether technology will affect your life. It will. The question is whether you will understand it well enough to benefit from it and to manage its risks”; the cultural and moral world or the “world of values” where the role of education is not only to sharpen the intellect but also to “free the mind and equip the learner to weigh the values of the world around them before making choices”; and the international and interconnected world where, whereas nations are “separated by oceans and man-made barriers… yet nations are bound together by trade, finance, migration, technology, diplomacy, security arrangements and environmental systems. No nation lives in complete isolation.”
In clear reference to the Strait of Hormuz debacle, Ayorinde said “a conflict thousands of kilometres away can change the price of fuel in Nigeria.” While an interconnected world “creates room for cooperation and prosperity, it also lets shocks cross borders quickly”; as a result of which he counselled that we need to “understand the world beyond our immediate surroundings.”
Finally, he spoke of the spiritual world and described human beings as “moral and spiritual beings searching for identity, belonging and purpose in the world we live in… Rightly understood, spirituality does not pull us away from the problems of society. It strengthens our resolve to face them.”
Ayorinde then described the world in which we live as troubled, but added that this is nothing new. “Every generation has faced wars, whether local, national, regional or global, as well as disease, economic hardship, social tension and uncertainty. What sets our time apart is the speed, scale and interconnectivity of many of these challenges.”
Wars, geo-political rivalries and insecurity; poverty, unemployment and economic insecurity; inflation, indebtedness and rising cost of living; climate change and environmental degradation; misinformation, social division and the crisis of truth; loneliness, mental pressure and the crisis of meaning; the crisis of values and loss of purpose; and the crisis of drug abuse were some of the other “troubles” of our world that Ayorinde painted in a picture that troubles the soul.
Describing the rate of drug abuse, particularly among our youth, as “sobering”, he said the country’s first national drug use survey carried out in 2018 with the support of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime “found that 14.4 per cent of Nigerians aged 15 to 64 had used a psychoactive substance other than alcohol and tobacco in the previous year.” That, I dare to say, must be stale news! The figures must be far higher by now. He then advised that the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency be invited to talk to students on the adverse effects of drug abuse.
Adding Value to Degrees and Certificates
Ayorinde admonished that whereas university degrees remain valuable, they may no longer be enough.
“You must understand the community, the state, the country and the world in which you intend to live and prosper.” So the question for a university graduate is not just “Where can I find a job?” but “What problem can I solve? What value can I create? What can I contribute to national development?” You must also accept this basic fact that despite all the challenges the world faces, honest people still survive, and they go beyond survival to achieve significance.
So today’s graduating students should endeavour to anchor their lives in enduring values, be financially literate, use technology with judgement, look after themselves (health is wealth), expect disappointments and setbacks (tough times never last but tough people do), stay honest under pressure, live for others, and work hard. While Ayorinde stressed survival instincts, he insisted that this should not be seen as the ultimate. “We should aspire to be significant,” he added.
“The future is not shaped only by presidents, governors, chief executives or global institutions. It is also shaped by the decisions of ordinary people who choose to act responsibly. You may not all become famous. You may not all hold public office, build large businesses or become wealthy. But every one of you can become a person of integrity, competence and positive influence, and that is a worthy ambition.”
Yes, it is! You can guess that I thoroughly enjoyed the lecture, the opportunity cost of which was foregoing some other equally important engagements.
Appeal to the FG
The convocation ceremony took place the next day, Friday, 16 October 2026. In attendance were the university’s Chancellor, Dr Samuel Adedoyin, OFR, and his wife; Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of Council, Pastor Samuel O. Olatunji; the Executive Secretary of the National Universities Commission (NUC) was represented; members of the Board of Trustees and of the Governing Council; the Vice-Chancellor and principal officers of the university, Senate members, representatives of sister institutions, staff, students and invited guests.
In his address, the Vice-Chancellor explained why the university was holding two convocation ceremonies within one year. “The Governing Council of the university approved management’s recommendation to bring the convocation ceremony… near the calendar year that the students conclude their programmes of study and, thus, release them for the mandatory national youth service, their admission into foreign universities, which take them far and near, and prevent a situation where only a few of the students concerned show up, particularly after they have participated enthusiastically in their professional induction ceremonies, which usually take place before the convocation ceremony itself.”
Congratulating the graduating students, Kolawole said they had been found worthy of both learning and character, warning that no one who falls short in any of the two would be awarded the university’s honours.
The university has come a long way, he said, reeling out achievements which include increased staffing, additional classrooms, laboratories, offices and hostel facilities. “The Governing Council approved the promotion of Dr Christiana Modupe-Ade Adetunji to the rank of Professor, the first in the history of the university. In addition, five other academic members of staff are currently being processed for elevation to the professorial rank, and we trust that the process will be completed soon.”
Kolawole also disclosed that three academic programmes have been added to the programmes on offer in the university; all courses are accredited by the relevant professional bodies; the Senate of the university also recently approved the establishment of another Faculty to increase the number to four. The university has also taken interest in ensuring that its students have skills that can help them to be gainfully employed when they graduate, thereby making skills acquisition a compulsory part of its curriculum.
Kolawole did not end his speech before appealing to the Federal Government to allow “students in private universities and institutions… to benefit from the innovative financial support that those in public institutions enjoy under NELFUND. Similarly, private institutions and their workforce should also benefit from the support of TETFund because they are Nigerians who should not be discriminated against simply because they are studying or working in private institutions.”
Well said!
-
Politics3 years ago
13 Ondo Assembly Members Disown Endorsement of Aiyedatiwa
-
Politics3 years ago
APC Group, Ondo Govt, Quarrel Over Money for Endorsement
-
Trending News6 years agoStop unsavoury, inciting statements – DSS warns
-
Others5 years agoAdron Homes Celebrates 10 Years Of Housing Excellence
-
Humanity5 years agoPresident Buhari Commiserates With Ambassador Maureen Tamuno Over The Loss Of Her Father
-
Others7 years agoEX- CUSTOMS BOSS, IBRAHIM MERA’S DWINDLING FAME
-
Business3 years agoBigi Carbonated Soft Drinks Treats 40 Consumers to an Epic Easter Movie Hangout
-
Business2 years agoWema Bank Shines at Global SME Finance Forum Conference Awards 2024 …Awarded: • SME Financier of the Year (Africa) • Platinum Award for Best Financier for Women Entrepreneurs (Africa)