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Refined Oil Drives UK–Nigeria Trade to £8bn in 2025

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UK–Nigeria trade 2025

Refined oil exports surged 62.8%, driving UK–Nigeria trade to £8bn and widening Britain’s trade surplus to £3.3bn in 2025

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Refined oil accounted for more than two-thirds of the United Kingdom’s total goods exports to Nigeria in the four quarters ending June 2025, rising sharply to £1.5bn, according to the latest UK–Nigeria Trade and Investment Factsheet released by the UK Department for Business and Trade.

Also readNigeria Non-Oil Export Data Rises to N3.17tn, as Data Gaps Fuel Debate

The report, based on data from the Office for National Statistics, revealed that refined oil made up 68.8 per cent of all goods exported from the UK to Nigeria during the period — a 62.8 per cent increase compared with the previous year.

Total UK exports to Nigeria rose by 12.3 per cent to £5.6bn, while imports from Nigeria increased by 8.2 per cent to £2.3bn, bringing total bilateral trade to £8bn — up 11.1 per cent (£793m) from the four quarters ending June 2024.

 

Refined oil remained the key driver of UK exports to Nigeria, followed by:

Toilet and cleansing products – £55.8m

Industrial machinery – £42.7m

Textile fabrics – £40.1m

Mechanical power generators – £35.1m

All top export categories recorded growth, with industrial machinery up 36.4%, cleansing products rising 26.5%, textile fabrics increasing 14.5%, and power generators up 8.7%.

Goods exports accounted for £2.2bn (38.4%) of total UK exports, while services contributed £3.5bn (61.6%). Although goods exports surged by 43.5%, services dipped slightly by 1.1%.

 

Nigeria’s exports to the UK

Nigeria’s top export to the UK was crude oil (£1.3bn), representing 73.1% of goods sent to Britain. Refined oil followed at £223.8m (13.1%), and gas exports totalled £167.8m (9.8%).

Other notable exports included:

Beverages and tobacco – £14.6m (up 29.8%)

Plastics in primary forms – £12.8m

Gas exports recorded the fastest growth at 75% year-on-year, followed by refined oil (62.6%) and crude oil (7.9%).

Analysts noted that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, capable of processing up to 650,000 barrels of crude daily, is enabling Nigeria to shift from crude exports to refined product exports.

 

Trade surplus and investment trends

The UK posted a £3.3bn trade surplus with Nigeria in the period, up from £2.8bn the previous year. The goods surplus widened to £441m from £51m, while the services surplus remained at £2.8bn.

Nigeria ranked as the UK’s 36th largest trading partner and 27th largest export market, accounting for 0.4% of total UK trade.

However, investment flows declined, with UK foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nigeria down 24.7% to £385m, while Nigeria’s FDI in the UK fell 41.2% to £489m.

London and the South East of England accounted for the largest share of UK exports to Nigeria, underscoring the concentration of trade activity in those regions.

 

Policy shifts and future outlook

Nigeria’s import of refined oil is expected to fall in the coming months following President Bola Tinubu’s approval of a 15% import levy on petrol and diesel — a policy aimed at protecting local refineries such as Dangote Refinery and smaller modular plants.

The levy, applied on Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) values, could raise the landed cost of imported fuel by about N99.72 per litre, potentially discouraging imports while boosting domestic refining.

Also readNigeria Upstream Oil Resurgence Boosts Output, Revenue, Investor Trust

While some experts believe the policy will stabilise supply and strengthen local production in the long term, others warn that it could raise pump prices and intensify economic hardship in the short term.

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Prof. Kareem Urges Efficient Resource Management for Nigeria’s Development

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By Daniel Oluwatobiloba Popoola

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Professor Rasaki Olufemi Kareem has identified efficient management of resources, rather than their abundance, as the key to Nigeria’s economic transformation and sustainable development.

Speaking at the first ever Inaugural Lecture of the Crescent University, Abeokuta,  titled, “Resource Efficiency Vs. Economic Development: Whither Nigeria”, the renowned economist argued that although Nigeria is richly endowed with oil, gas, solid minerals, fertile land and a rapidly growing population, millions of citizens still live in poverty because resources have not been effectively managed and deployed.

Professor Kareem, also the Deputy Vice Chancellor of the University, explained that while Resource Economics focuses on the efficient and sustainable use of scarce resources, Development Economics seeks to improve living standards, reduce poverty and promote economic growth.

According to him, resource efficiency enhances productivity, lowers production costs, stimulates innovation, protects the environment and lays the foundation for long-term development.

Professor Kareem also highlighted the phenomenon known as the Dutch Disease or Resource Curse, noting that countries blessed with abundant natural resources often fail to attain corresponding economic progress because of poor governance, corruption, weak institutions and excessive dependence on resource revenues.

“Nigeria’s challenge is not the absence of resources, but the inefficient management and utilisation of those resources,” he said.

The Professor maintained that sustainable development in Nigeria would depend largely on effective resource management, strong institutions, sound governance, investment in infrastructure, technology and human capital, consistent development policies and active community participation.

Drawing from decades of research in fisheries, agriculture, economic growth, poverty, governance, food security and climate change, Professor Kareem demonstrated that efficient resource use has a direct impact on productivity, economic growth and citizens’ welfare.

He stressed that transparency and responsibility remain indispensable to sustainable development.

“Sustainable economic development can only be achieved when resources are utilised efficiently, transparently and responsibly,” he stated.

The scholar added that resource efficiency is critical to poverty reduction, food security, job creation and the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals.

As part of measures to reposition the economy, he recommended diversification beyond oil, stronger institutions, improved governance and a more robust anti-corruption framework.

He also advocated increased investment in agriculture and food security, greater support for research, innovation and technology, adoption of sustainable resource management practices and enhanced public awareness on the importance of resource efficiency.

Professor Kareem summed up his message with a call for a paradigm shift in the country’s development strategy.

“Nigeria’s future prosperity depends not on the abundance of its resources, but on how effectively and efficiently those resources are managed for the benefit of all citizens,” he declared.

He urged policymakers and stakeholders to embrace resource efficiency as a pathway to inclusive growth, poverty reduction, food security and sustainable national development.

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